Like many other markets, Bitcoin (BTC) is all about momentum, trends, and patterns. According to analyst , a prominent American cryptocurrency investor, there is a relatively high likelihood that this market could see a dreary next three months.
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In a recent tweet, seen below, the investor accentuated that historically, July and August have been “historically bad months” for Bitcoin. Indeed, as seen in the chart below, the two summer months are the only two with a negative total return, whilst months like March, April, and October have positive returns in the hundreds of percent. What’s equally as harrowing is that if Bitcoin performs poorly in June, there is a 75% likelihood that the cryptocurrency market will continue to suffer into July. Are the technicals backing a move lower, though?through the years.
— Timothy Peterson, CFA CAIA (@nsquaredcrypto)
1) July and August are historically bad months for
2) However, June's momentum carries into July 75% of the time.
3) If June is negative, the following July has ALWAYS been negative.
BTC Could Head Lower
There are a number of investors fearful that Bitcoin could head lower from here, despite the relent in bearish selling pressure. Trader Walter Wyckoff noted that if BTC is mirroring price action in 2015 — during which this market went parabolic, saw a brief retrace, and then continued higher — it could fall to the low-$6,000s or even the high-$5,000s. Analyst Moon Overlord has echoed this pseudo-prediction. In a thread, the popular commentator remarked that a 35% correction to approximately $6,000 from the $9,100 peak may be healthy, as BTC bouncing off support at those levels would build a long-term base for the cryptocurrency’s expected “moon shot”.On Twitter, legendary cryptocurrency investor Trace Mayer explained that he expects for Bitcoin to undergo a “gentle retreat” to anywhere from $6,500 to $7,500. His peer, Adamant Capital partner Tuur Demeester, echoed the analysis, writing in a note that his firm’s indicators now read “greed” after “capitulation”.
Using this information, Demeester remarked that a 2012-esque correction could be experienced, during which BTC may fall to the range of “between $6,800 and $7,680”, which is a 27% to 44% retrace of the upside rally.Bitcoin Still in Overarching Bull Trend
It is important to note that until hell arrives on Earth, or arrives at the crypto market rather, Bitcoin remains in a long-term bull trend. According to Level’s Josh Rager, the one-week Super Guppy, an indicator that singles out trends, has flipped from red to grey for Bitcoin after the three-day iteration of the signal turned green. With Guppy being a lagging indicator, Rager notes that this recent technical occurrence is a “strong confirmation” of a longer-term bull trend.
//twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/79843591 What’s more, Bitcoin recently closed its fourth consecutive weekly candle above its 50-week moving average, a series of events that have never failed to mark a bull run in the past.Featured Image from Shutterstock
