Bitcoin has been fairly unpredictable over the past few months.
In December, when the cryptocurrency fell under $7,000, a majority of analysts were expecting a retracement to the $5,000s, citing the existence of the ever-important 200-week moving average. And at the top near $10,000 established in mid-February, half of Crypto Twitter was convinced BTC was set to retake $14,000, then surge to fresh highs. True to the nature of the “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” BTC did the exact opposite of what the majority expected, rallying out of the December lows and crashing from the February highs.Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin’s Crash to $3,000 Says This Comes Next
One fund manager, however, went against the grain. Su Zhu, CEO/CIO of Three Arrows Capital, remarked that BTC would likely end January around $9,000, 25% higher than the market price when he made that comment. He was right.
Now, he’s back, arguing that there’s a good likelihood Bitcoin hits $50,000 “relatively quickly.” Here’s why he thinks so.Bitcoin Could Hit $50,000? What?
In a recent tweet, Su Zhu remarked that Bitcoin could rally to $50,000 “relatively quickly,” which would mark a 730% gain from the current price of $6,000.The article contained the below image, which shows that Bitcoin’s market capitalization over time can be plotted on a logarithmic regression, which has an R squared of 95%, or extremely accurate in non-statistics lingo terms.
The model predicts that BTC will have a fair value of $55,000 to $100,000 — ten to twenty times the current value — after the halving due to the emission shock.
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