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TA: Bitcoin Price Back Below 100 SMA, Why BTC Could Retest $45K

Bitcoin

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $50,000 and $49,000 against the US Dollar. BTC is now below the 100 hourly SMA and it is likely to continue lower towards $45,000

Bitcoin Price Turns Red

After forming a short-term top near the $52,600 level, bitcoin started a fresh decline. BTC traded below the $51,200 and $50,000 support levels to move back into a negative zone.

There was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $49,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even broke the $48,000 support level. There was a clear break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $43,050 swing low to $52,650 high.

It is now trading well below $50,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It seems like the bulls are trying to protect the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $43,050 swing low to $52,650 high.

Source: 
If they fail and the price trades below $46,500, there are chances of more losses. The next key support is near the $45,000 level, below which the bears might aim a test of the $43,000 support zone.

Fresh Increase in BTC?

If bitcoin stays above $46,500, it could correct higher. An initial resistance on the upside is near the $48,000 level. The first major resistance is near the $49,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $49,000 on the same chart. To move into a positive zone, the price must clear the trend line resistance and then gain pace above the $50,000 barrier. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $46,500, followed by $45,000. Major Resistance Levels – $48,000, $49,000 and $50,000.
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