The CEO of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant explained that Bitcoin’s price isn’t currently overvalued based on its network fundamentals.
Bitcoin Price May Not Be Overvalued Yet Based On Thermo Cap Ratio
In a new on X, CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju has discussed about how the recent trend in the Bitcoin Thermo Cap Ratio has been like. The “Thermo Cap” is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates the total value of the asset by taking each token’s value as the same as the spot price when it was mined on the network.
Put another way, this model calculates the cumulative value of the coins mined by the miners since the inception of the blockchain. This is quite different from what, for example, the usual market cap does. In the market cap’s case, the current spot price is taken as the value of all coins in circulation.
As the coins that miners mine are the only way to increase the cryptocurrency’s supply, the Thermo Cap may be considered a measure of the “true” capital inflows coming into the network.
Here is a chart that displays how the Bitcoin Thermo Cap has changed over its history:
As the above graph shows, the Thermo Cap has seen an accelerating growth curve. This naturally reflects the increasing amount of capital flowing into the asset over the years.
In the context of the current topic, though, the indicator of interest isn’t the Thermo Cap itself but rather the Thermo Cap Ratio. This metric tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the Thermo Cap.
The chart below shows the trend in the Thermo Cap Ratio over the asset’s history.
An interesting pattern is visible in the graph. It appears that very high values of the Thermo Cap Ratio have coincided with highs in the cryptocurrency’s price.
At high values, the Bitcoin market cap is quite large compared to the Thermo Cap, meaning that coins are trading at a much higher rate than they were mined at.
It’s also apparent that bottoms in BTC occur when the ratio assumes low values. The recent trend in the indicator has been that of a rise, but its value has not touched the levels where bull run tops would have happened in the past. “Bitcoin is not currently overvalued based on network fundamentals,” notes the CryptoQuant founder.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has been unable to break out of its range recently as its price has kept up the trend of sideways movement. At present, BTC is trading at around $68,900.
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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