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Funding and forwards have also been heating up over the last two weeks since SEC chair Gensler made favourable comments about a futures-based BTC ETF. Perpetual swap funding went from slightly negative in the end of September to around 20% now.
Bitcoin At A Crossroads, Fresh Capital Price In ETF Decision
Further data provided by QCP Capital showed that institutional investors have entered the market after pricing in a potential Bitcoin ETF approval. As seen below, the CME futures premium as trend upwards especially after Gensler made its optimist comments. In that sense, the SEC’s decision could trigger two of the following scenarios for Bitcoin. In the bullish scenario, the ETF approval will drive a new wave of institutional demand for BTC, QCP Capital expects. In a second scenario, Bitcoin will face another “buy the rumor, sells the news” event with potential for more downside and a retest of its support levels.Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Prepares To Blast Off Back Into RSI “Bull Zone”
As seen below, QCP Capital highlighted the dynamic in the BTC Options markets with the “front-end risk reversals” tending downside. This suggests a lot of uncertainty amongst investors and a “prevailing downside nervousness”. The firm said:Direction-wise for BTC, we find ourselves with a bullish bias but unable to form a strong bullish conviction in spite of the clear optimism in the market.The firm has set its target on Monday, next week. If the event is to favor the bears, it is possible that the weekend price action might reveal what’s to come in the following days. QCP Capital said:
A lot hinges on the Pro-shares ETF decision on Monday, with their application being the first and widely expected to get approval. As the ETF decisions are underway, we expect BTC to remain the focus of the crypto market.