Lekker Capital, which has carved a niche in trading cryptocurrencies based on macroeconomic cues, provides an analysis that contrasts sharply with the prevailing market mood. Thompson’s commentary comes at a time when the broader crypto community appears enmeshed in pessimism. He expressed concern over the current trend where it’s become fashionable among crypto investors to adopt a bearish stance. “In all of my 5 years in crypto, I have never seen it be so ‘cool’ amongst crypto native investors as it is right now to be bearish,” Thompson noted, reflecting on the cyclical nature of market sentiments.
Thompson pointed to the reactive nature of the market, particularly surrounding major events like ETF launches. He revisited the aftermath of the US spot Bitcoin ETF launch, which contrary to the bullish anticipation, saw Bitcoin’s price plunge from $49,000 to $38,000, marking a steep 22% decline in just 12 days. This event, he argued, should serve as a cautionary tale about the market’s tendency to move against consensus expectations.
Addressing the most recent market dynamics, Thompson highlighted the significant impact of the sell-off that dampened the spirits of market participants, discouraging the usual strategies of buying the dip with leveraged positions. “It’s clear this most recent selloff has finally stung market participants given the lack of leveraged long dip buying,” he observed. This scenario, according to him, sets the stage for a market correction that typically follows a pattern of initial slow recovery, stabilization, and then a rapid upward movement once a catalytic event occurs. He recalled the BTC ETF leak in October as a “buy the news” event that realigned market sentiment.Furthermore, Thompson discussed the forward-looking nature of financial markets, emphasizing that the crypto market is no exception. He believes that the market has already adjusted to past events such as the Mt. Gox saga and Bitcoin sell-offs from the US and German governments. “The key thing to remember here is markets are forward looking. Citing the Mt. Gox or US and German government supply overhangs is old news – the market has priced this in. Fear and capitulation invokes an irrational near-sightedness,” the Lekker Capital CIO remarked.
Looking ahead, he underscored several macro and microeconomic developments poised to influence the market. “On the macro front, these include a November election and additional Fed liquidity. On the micro front, they are the ETH ETF, Circle IPO, and improved BTC miner profitability thanks to AI,” he explained. These factors are expected to reduce selling pressure (e.g. Bitcoin miners) and invigorate market sentiment.
Delving deeper into market technicals, Thompson pointed out that several key indicators are at cycle lows, which historically precede upward movements. He noted, “BTC and ETH CME basis, alt open interest as a percentage of total, and macro relative value all sit at cycle lows while stablecoin supply is finally growing again.” This combination of factors, according to Thompson, signals a potential market bottom forming. In a bold closing prediction, Thompson projected significant rallies for major cryptocurrencies in the near future. “Personally, I think ETH will reach $7,000 and BTC will make its first attempt at $100,000 by the election in November,” he stated confidently. At press time, BTC traded at $60,766.