In a recent that has caught the attention of both traditional financial markets and the Bitcoin community, Goldman Sachs economists, including the renowned Jan Hatzius and David Mericle, have made a significant prediction regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The note suggests that the Federal Reserve may commence a series of interest rate cuts by the end of June 2024.
“The cuts in our forecast are driven by this desire to normalize the funds rate from a restrictive level once inflation is closer to target,” the Goldman economists wrote. This statement underscores the bank’s belief that the Federal Reserve’s current stance on interest rates may be too restrictive, especially if inflation rates continue to trend towards the central bank’s target.
The note further elaborates: “Normalization is not a particularly urgent motivation for cutting, and for that reason we also see a significant risk that the FOMC will instead hold steady.” This cautious tone suggests that while Goldman Sachs is predicting a rate cut, they also acknowledge the unpredictability of the Federal Reserve’s decisions.
The recent data, which showed US inflation rising at a slower-than-expected rate of 3.2%, with the core consumer price index at a 4.7% annual pace, further complicates the picture. With the Fed’s benchmark rate currently set between 5.25% to 5.5%, Goldman Sachs expects it to stabilize around 3 to 3.25%.
What Does This Mean For Bitcoin Price?
Expectations of a rate cut from Goldman Sachs are in line with market expectations according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In May 2024, 68% already expect there to be at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut.
CME FedWatch tool probabilities | Source:
However, it remains to be seen whether macro events will influence the Bitcoin price again. In the last few months, BTC increasingly decoupled from macro events while the stock market rallied towards all-time highs and stagnated around the $30,000 mark.
Interestingly, the timing could be very positive for the Bitcoin market. On the one hand, March 15, 2024 is the final deadline for spot Bitcoin ETF filings from BlackRock, Fidelity, Investco, VanEck, and WisdomTree; on the other hand, Bitcoin halving is coming up at the end of April (currently expected on April 26).
The high expectations for these two events, coupled with a dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, could be a massive catalyst for the Bitcoin price.
At press time, BTC traded at $29,426 and saw another calm weekend amid the liquidity summer drought. Breaking above $29,550 is key to establish any bullish momentum to initiate another push towards $30,000.
Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with uniquehot.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.
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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.
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As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.
In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.
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