Bitcoin hasn’t fared too well over the past week; after hitting $10,000 last weekend, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell, tumbling from that key psychological resistance to a price as low as $8,450 () — a drop of 15%.
While there are a number of analysts hinting that this retracement is a precursor to a deeper correction, a growing number of commentators claim that BTC is on the verge of rallying 100% (or more) towards the previous all-time high of $20,000.
What’s even more interesting about these predictions is that a few traders expect such price action to transpire over a couple of months, not the years it took BTC to move out of a bull market in 2014-2015.
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Could Bitcoin Really Hit $18,000 In the Coming Months?
Despite the fear floating around the crypto industry at the moment due to last week’s severe correction,
The analysis, which attempts to compare the price action between the market structure in 2014-2016 to the market structure, suggests that Bitcoin is currently “holding up nicely” against the previous market cycle.
BTC following the previous market cycle to T, per Polar Hunt’s charts, will mean the asset surging to $18,000 — a gain of over 100% from the current price of $8,550 — by the time of the block reward reduction in May 2020.
While this may sound overly optimistic, the below chart shows eerie similarities in the market structures between the previous market cycle and the current, similarities that Polar Hunt suggests adds credence to his bullish argument.
This is also holding up nicely and shows how this particular part of the marketcycle is "sideways" and therefor both hard to buy and hard to hold.
Im writing these posts to show you, but also to remind my self not sell any. I actually added to my stack this Friday.
— Polar Hunt (@polar_hunt)
Far From the Only Bull
Polar Hunt is far from the only analyst to have suggested that Bitcoin will rally near $18,000 in the coming months.
Speaking to CNBC in an interview published two weeks ago, Mike Novogratz — the CEO of Galaxy Digital and a former partner at Goldman Sachs — argued that Bitcoin may trade around $20,000 “literally by the halving, which is in a couple of months.”
While he didn’t cite catalysts for such a “frenzied” move in that interview, the investor has previously cited central bank policy, the halving, and institutional involvement as crucial catalysts for BTC’s growth in the future.
Also, Financial Survivalism — the trader who called Bitcoin’s price action in January weeks in advance — suggested in a TradingView post entitled “that BTC will trade at or above $20,000 by July 1st. He cited a confluence of technical indicators to back his point.
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