The Bitcoin price is lingering just under $19,000 at the time of writing, not far from the local low of $18,300. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released last week, the BTC price plunged to just that price level.
Unexpectedly for many, a very quick rebound happened, catching shorters off guard. With November 02 – when the FED meets again – in mind, the Bitcoin price doesn’t have much room to fall below that level at the moment. Moreover, a look at the on-chain suggests another crash is possible in the short term, although there are positive signals as well.
to CryptoQuant, a bear market signal appears when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) goes above the realized price of all coins bought (red line) and when the BTC price falls below the realized price of long-term holders and the realized price of all coins.The drop from $30.7k to $18.2k was 41%. A 50% drop from $30.7k would put BTC at $15k (-18% from the current price). Similar to the $14.7k delta price.
Contradictory On-Chain Data For Bitcoin
With Santiment, another major on-chain analysis service stated that the Bitcoin market needs to ideally see accumulation at the moment, while small traders remain bearish and spread doom and gloom.Bullish data is also reported by the third major on-chain data provider Glassnode. Bitcoin supply which has not moved in the last 6 months is approaching an all-time low. It currently stands at 18.12% of circulating supply or about 3.485 million BTC. Glassnode :
Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research LLC, recently an old trader’s adage, “Never short a dull market,” which may apply more than ever to the Bitcoin market. According to his analysis, the realized volatility meaning the backwardation or actual volatility is at a 2-year low and is recording one of the lowest levels of all time.Historically, very low volumes of mobile supply typically occur after prolonged bear markets.
Diverging volatility could therefore be a sign of this shift and ultimately trigger a long-term positive trend.Markets bottom on apathy, not excitement. BTC and ETH have apathy. The S&P 500 is nearly the opposite, as prices move around like a video game. This might also be another sign of the TradFi/Crypto tight relationship breaking. If so, this is long-run bullish for crypto.