Nation-State Bitcoin FOMO Is Real

“Countries are already buying BTC in huge volumes—these are massive pools of capital entering the market. We’re witnessing global adoption at scale and the next rally could be massive. Buckle up. Caught up last week with Bloomberg TV, he stated via X.

In the Bloomberg interview, Novogratz elaborated on the unprecedented interest from sovereign entities. He mentioned a close associate—the person who introduced him to BTC in 2013—who is currently in the Middle East. “He’s never seen anything like it,” Novogratz said. “He’s convincing more people to buy Bitcoin in the three days he’s been there than any time in his whole career, and they’re huge pools of capital. And so we’re seeing something globally.”

Novogratz noted that when former President Donald Trump advocated in Nashville that he intended to be a “crypto president” and a “Bitcoin president,” it caught the attention of international leaders. “Other leaders heard that,” he remarked, suggesting that geopolitical factors could contribute to an “amazing rally” in the Bitcoin market.

When questioned about the likelihood of the United States establishing a Strategic BTC Reserve under a Trump presidency, Novogratz remained cautious. “I still think it’s a low probability,” he stated. He cited the complexities of US legislative processes, emphasizing that while the executive branch or the House might show enthusiasm, the Senate often urges restraint. “That’s the role of the Senate,” he said, pointing out that Republicans do not hold a 60-seat majority necessary to push through such initiatives unilaterally.

Nonetheless, Novogratz acknowledged the potential benefits of the US embracing Bitcoin at a strategic level. “It would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin they have and maybe add some to it,” he suggested, adding that it would signal a commitment to being a “technology-first country, a crypto and digital asset-first country.” While he doesn’t believe the US dollar requires backing by Bitcoin, he admitted that if a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve were established, “Bitcoin heads to $500,000.”

He added: “If it happens in the short term without a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, it’s going to mean six, seven, eight years,” Novogratz cautioned. “Then it’s just a scramble to get the hot commodity.” He expressed concerns that such a scenario could be indicative of hyperinflation, which historically leads to societal instability. “In every country that experiences hyperinflation, the results are really crappy,” he noted.

Discussing Bitcoin’s potential to rival gold as a store of value, Novogratz highlighted a generational shift in investment preferences. “The total market cap of gold is like $16 trillion,” he explained, which translates to approximately $800,000 per BTC if it were to reach parity. “When does Bitcoin become gold?” he asked rhetorically. Novogratz, who is turning 60 next week, admitted he still owns gold, calling himself “an old guy.”

However, he pointed out that younger generations are less inclined to invest in gold. “Forty-year-olds own no gold. Thirty-year-olds own none,” he observed. “As we see this generational shift, Bitcoin should match gold within five or ten years, and that gets you to $800,000.”

At press time, BTC traded at $93,000.

if the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happens prepare for 7 figure bitcoin. this cycle. the market is skeptical on meaningful follow through for now, so that is not at all priced in.

�Adam Back (@adam3us) November 18, 2024

The bold prediction sparked discussions among industry experts and enthusiasts. James Van Straten, a noted crypto analyst, responded, “7 figures? I don’t think I’m mentally prepared for 6.” Acknowledging the market’s doubt, Back replied, “That’s a fairly big ‘if’ though. At least if we infer from market price, the market thinks a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is unlikely. If that becomes real, I’d expect a rapid repricing.”

Can Bitcoin Rise To $1 Million Per Coin?

The conversation highlights the market’s skepticism regarding the feasibility of the US government accumulating such a significant Bitcoin reserve. Van Straten, like other experts, suggested that a nation might consider “front-running” this potential scenario, to which Back noted, “There’s no good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even then, once it leaks, the entire world gets FOMO and a price teleport happens.”

Portal, a custodyless interoperability protocol for Bitcoin, weighed in on the discussion via X: “If the US starts one, surely the rest of the world will start to follow suit as well.” This sentiment underscores the potential global ripple effect of a US-initiated SBR on Bitcoin adoption and valuation.

Skepticism was also voiced by X user AndyLiteMan (@LiteAndy), who critiqued Back’s astronomical prediction: “As much as that would be exciting, it’s not going to happen. We hear this every cycle.” Back maintained his position, emphasizing the conditional nature of his prediction: “I said ‘if,’ and that market doesn’t believe it so far.”

Adding another layer to the unfolding narrative, Dennis Porter, CEO and founder of the Satoshi Act Fund—a US nonprofit advocating for Bitcoin adoption—claimed on November 18 that Donald Trump’s team is considering an executive order to establish a national SBR, as Bitcoinist reported. “I’ve heard that the Trump team is considering an Executive Order for a National ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ in order to beat any state from passing it into law first,” Porter disclosed via X. “I can confirm that US Senate offices are backing this plan up. Game on President Trump. The race is on.”

Porter, deeply involved in legislative efforts surrounding Bitcoin adoption, noted that his information stems from “private conversations with people familiar” with the matter and his direct involvement in promoting SBR language across the United States and internationally.

Notably, it is crucial to distinguish between the proposals being discussed. Porter’s reference to Trump’s consideration pertains to an executive order that would establish a national SBR. This contrasts with Trump’s previous suggestion at the Bitcoin 2024 conference to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve by retaining all “seized coins” obtained through law enforcement actions.

Furthermore, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced the Bitcoin Act, which proposes the US government purchase 1 million BTC over five years, allocating 200,000 BTC per year. Addressing this legislative initiative, Back commented on a Polymarket prediction market screenshot showing a 36% chance for “Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve?” He clarified, “Optimistic IMO and depends on what they mean. ‘Not selling seized coins’ is very different from Senator Lummis’ SBR bill to buy 1 million BTC.”

The latter could send the Bitcoin price skyrocketing. Back highlighted the logistical challenges of such a substantial acquisition: “There’s no good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even then, once it leaks, the entire world gets FOMO and a price teleport happens.”

At press time, BTC traded at $92,329.

Major Financial Players Align

This endorsement comes as discussions about BCT’s role in US economic policy are intensifying, most notably with Dennis Porter, co-founder and CEO of the non-profit Satoshi Action Fund (SAF), reaffirming BlackRock’s support for the strategic Bitcoin reserve. 

Porter emphasized that the Trump administration is actively working towards creating this reserve through an executive order, highlighting a significant alignment among major financial players and lawmakers regarding Bitcoin’s future.

During a series of social media posts on X (formerly Twitter), Porter also outlined a series of steps he believes will facilitate the establishment of the strategic Bitcoin reserve, suggesting that the process will begin with Trump appointing a pro-Bitcoin Treasury Secretary. 

Key Steps For Establishing A US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 

Porter asserts that Donald Trump would then sign an executive order to create the reserve, which would also involve halting the auction of Bitcoin currently held by the US Marshals Service. 

The next phase would see the Treasury absorb these Bitcoin assets and place them into the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Over time, the Treasury would continue to accumulate Bitcoin for the reserve.

Porter also noted the importance of legislative support, stating that since executive orders can be easily reversed, it would be crucial for Congress to pass a formal bill establishing the strategic reserve, spearheaded by pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis.

The potential for a US strategic Bitcoin reserve has generated substantial excitement in the market, contributing to Bitcoin’s recent surge to an all-time high of $94,000.

This reflects growing confidence among investors and speculation that such government actions could lead to significant buying pressure and further institutional adoption.

At the time of writing, BTC has fallen back to $93,380 after hitting its new all-time high, marking a 40% increase in just two weeks. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com