{"id":407628,"date":"2019-12-17T17:00:37","date_gmt":"2019-12-17T17:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=407628"},"modified":"2024-06-11T13:35:22","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T13:35:22","slug":"former-imf-economist-current-bitcoin-trend-is-textbook-echo-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/former-imf-economist-current-bitcoin-trend-is-textbook-echo-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Former IMF Economist: Current Bitcoin Trend is &#8220;Textbook Echo Bubble\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><a href=\"\/tag\/bitcoin\" rel=\"nofollow\">Bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s entire 2019 rally from trough to peak, is nothing more than a \u201ctextbook echo bubble\u201d according to a former IMF economist.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If the well-known economist is correct, knowing this fact could provide some clues about what happens next for the first-ever cryptocurrency.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Forms Textbook Echo Bubble, According to Mark Dow<\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">After <a href=\"\/tag\/bitcoin\" rel=\"nofollow\">Bitcoin<\/a> bottomed out late last year, the crypto asset spent the first quarter of the year stagnant, but as soon as the second quarter hit, the first-ever cryptocurrency went on a parabolic rally reminiscent of the highly-publicized crypto hype bubble.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Related Reading | <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/2019\/12\/16\/20k-day-a-look-back-at-bitcoins-two-year-rise-and-fall\/\">$20K Day: A Look Back At Bitcoin\u2019s Two-Year Rise and Fall<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Occasionally in financial markets, after a powerful bubble pops, a post-bubble rally can occur that\u2019s called an echo-bubble, given the structural similarity to the initial primary bubble phase. And that\u2019s exactly what has happened with <a href=\"\/tag\/bitcoin\" rel=\"nofollow\">Bitcoin<\/a> and its most recent rally, according to former IMF economist Mark Dow.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Textbook echo-bubble. Sorry, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pierre_rochard?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">@pierre_rochard<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">#bitcoin<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24XBT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">$XBT<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">$BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z4vR6IuESp\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/Z4vR6IuESp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Dow (@mark_dow) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mark_dow\/status\/08949760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">December 16, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Dow famously shorted Bitcoin\u2019s initial bubble pop, earning him a fortune and a reputation for calling tops and bottoms in the crypto asset.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Just like Bitcoin\u2019s first major bubble, the echo-bubble also popped and is currently in the process of deflating \u2013 just as the first bubble did.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><a href=\"\/tag\/bitcoin\" rel=\"nofollow\">Bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s price reached $20,000 just two years ago today, and after that peak, the crypto asset spent the entire year of 2018 ping-ponging between peak and trough, until it ultimately reached a bear market low of $3,100.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Echo Bubble Performance Suggests Bottom is Near for BTC<\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/e\/echobubble.asp\" rel=\"nofollow\">Investopedia<\/a>, echo bubbles in financial markets are often less inflated than the initial primary bubble, which causes it to leave less damage behind after it bursts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The first crypto bubble pop caused an over 80% drawdown from $20,000 to $3,100, and the theory would suggest that the current drawdown phase would need to end at less than 80% to be less damaging.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Currently, <a href=\"\/tag\/bitcoin\" rel=\"nofollow\">Bitcoin<\/a> is down over 50% from the high it set in late June 2019 at roughly $14,000, before it was rejected and the current downtrend first began. If the crypto asset is poised to fall less than 80% but has already fallen over 50%, this could suggest that Bitcoin is close to a local bottom and could soon rally once again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Whether or not Bitcoin rises enough to have another bubble is anyone\u2019s guess, but recent targets of $50,000 to as much as $100,000 in the year 2021 have been called \u201ctame\u201d by a prominent crypto analyst.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Related Reading | <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/2019\/12\/12\/bitcoin-at-risk-of-12-more-months-of-bear-hibernation-possible-lower-low\/\">Bitcoin At Risk Of 12 More Months Of Bear Hibernation, Possible Lower Low\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Still, Dow says that before anyone begins to buy the leading cryptocurrency by market cap at these levels, they should wait for a base to form much like it did when Bitcoin price traded at lows around $3,000.<\/span><\/p>\n<pre>Featured image from Shutterstock<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s entire 2019 rally from trough to peak, is nothing more than a \u201ctextbook echo bubble\u201d according to a former IMF economist. If the well-known economist is correct, knowing this fact could provide some clues about what happens next for the first-ever cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Forms Textbook Echo Bubble, According to Mark Dow After Bitcoin bottomed out late last year, the crypto asset spent the first quarter of the year stagnant, but as soon as the second quarter hit, the first-ever cryptocurrency went on a parabolic rally reminiscent of the highly-publicized crypto hype bubble. Related Reading | $20K Day: A Look Back At Bitcoin\u2019s Two-Year Rise and Fall Occasionally in financial markets, after a powerful bubble pops, a post-bubble rally can occur that\u2019s called an echo-bubble, given the structural similarity to the initial primary bubble phase. And that\u2019s exactly what has happened with Bitcoin and its most recent rally, according to former IMF economist Mark Dow. Textbook echo-bubble. Sorry, @pierre_rochard #bitcoin $XBT $BTC pic.twitter.com\/Z4vR6IuESp &mdash; Dow (@mark_dow) December 16, 2019 Dow famously shorted Bitcoin\u2019s initial bubble pop, earning him a fortune and a reputation for calling tops and bottoms in the crypto asset. Just like Bitcoin\u2019s first major bubble, the echo-bubble also popped and is currently in the process of deflating \u2013 just as the first bubble did. Bitcoin\u2019s price reached $20,000 just two years ago today, and after that peak, the crypto asset spent the entire year of 2018 ping-ponging between peak and trough, until it ultimately reached a bear market low of $3,100. Echo Bubble Performance Suggests Bottom is Near for BTC According to Investopedia, echo bubbles in financial markets are often less inflated than the initial primary bubble, which causes it to leave less damage behind after it bursts. The first crypto bubble pop caused an over 80% drawdown from $20,000 to $3,100, and the theory would suggest that the current drawdown phase would need to end at less than 80% to be less damaging. Currently, Bitcoin is down over 50% from the high it set in late June 2019 at roughly $14,000, before it was rejected and the current downtrend first began. If the crypto asset is poised to fall less than 80% but has already fallen over 50%, this could suggest that Bitcoin is close to a local bottom and could soon rally once again. Whether or not Bitcoin rises enough to have another bubble is anyone\u2019s guess, but recent targets of $50,000 to as much as $100,000 in the year 2021 have been called \u201ctame\u201d by a prominent crypto analyst. Related Reading | Bitcoin At Risk Of 12 More Months Of Bear Hibernation, Possible Lower Low\u00a0 Still, Dow says that before anyone begins to buy the leading cryptocurrency by market cap at these levels, they should wait for a base to form much like it did when Bitcoin price traded at lows around $3,000. Featured image from Shutterstock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":517,"featured_media":407630,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,3],"tags":[428,6664,49171,64767],"class_list":["post-407628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-crypto","tag-echo-bubble","tag-mark-down"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Former IMF Economist: Current Bitcoin Trend is &quot;Textbook Echo Bubble\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s entire 2019 rally from trough to peak, is nothing more than a \u201ctextbook echo bubble\u201d according to a former IMF economist. 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The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions. In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony\u2019s expertise to guide their trading strategies. Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies. 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His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice. In summary, Tony \\\"The Bull\\\" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. 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