{"id":466640,"date":"2021-07-01T18:15:58","date_gmt":"2021-07-01T18:15:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=466640"},"modified":"2024-06-11T13:56:45","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T13:56:45","slug":"plan-b-famed-bitcoin-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/plan-b-famed-bitcoin-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Plan B: The Next 6 Months Will Make Or Break Famed Bitcoin Model"},"content":{"rendered":"

The next 6 months will make or break S2F, the most famous Bitcoin model, says PlanB who popularized the method.<\/p>\n

The Stock-To-Flow Model<\/h2>\n

The S2F model is a simple method used to predict asset prices. PlanB first posted a chart for Bitcoin<\/a> based on the technique back in 2019.<\/p>\n

Here is new chart based on the S2F method for Bitcoin’s current price prediction, posted by PlanB on Twitter:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

BTC's S2F model | Source: PlanB<\/a><\/pre>\n
The trend predicted by S2F is remarkably close to the real thing. There are a few points of deviation, however, including the current 2021 period.<\/p>\n
As the name Stock-To-Flow would imply, it’s calculated by dividing the stock (supply) with the flow (annual production).<\/p>\n
Higher the S2F value, more scarce is the commodity. PlanB used this table to showcase how this works:<\/p>\n
\"\"<\/p>\n
The S2F values of some precious metals | Source: PlanB<\/a><\/pre>\n
As you can see, the above table shows data for a few precious metals.<\/p>\n
The SF value indicates how many years it will take based on the production levels (or flow) to mine out the same amount as the current stock.<\/p>\n
For example, in the case of gold, the SF value is 62, which indicates it would take 62 years to take the current stock out of ground.<\/p>\n
Related Reading | Why This U.S. Congressman Compared Bitcoin Investment With Playing The Lottery<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
Such a high value means that gold is a relatively scarce commodity compared to, say, silver, which has its SF value at 22.<\/p>\n
During 2019, when this table was released, Bitcoin’s SF value was 25, which means it was scarcer than silver, but not gold.<\/p>\n
However, there is one thing to note here. BTC is different to gold<\/a> and other metals in that their S2F value won’t practically increase much.<\/p>\n
Current stock-to-flow value of Bitcoin is around 49, which means the cryptocurrency has only gotten scarcer over the years.<\/p>\n
The reason behind BTC’s S2F value sharply going up is the halving (where flow is halved). With each halving, the coin will continue to get scarcer.<\/p>\n
Now, here is how the S2F value correlates with the price.<\/p>\n
Model price (USD) = exp(-1.84) * SF ^ 3.36<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
The model is based on the above formula. This is how the chart was generated. Looking back at which, in 2019 almost the same amount of deviation was observed as in 2021 right now.<\/p>\n
Related Reading | A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
The 2019 price went back in line with the chart shortly after, while it remains to be seen whether the same will happen this time.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, BTC<\/a>‘s price is around $33k. It’s down about 5% in the last 7 days, and almost 8% in the past month.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC seems to be going down again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Bitcoin seems to be in a bear market right now, but if the S2F model holds true, the price should go up soon to remain in line with it. The next few months will be a real test for the method.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The next 6 months will make or break S2F, the most famous Bitcoin model, says PlanB who popularized the method. The Stock-To-Flow Model The S2F model is a simple method used to predict asset prices. PlanB first posted a chart for Bitcoin based on the technique back in 2019. Here is new chart based on the S2F method for Bitcoin’s current price prediction, posted by PlanB on Twitter: BTC’s S2F model | Source: PlanB The trend predicted by S2F is remarkably close to the real thing. There are a few points of deviation, however, including the current 2021 period. As the name Stock-To-Flow would imply, it’s calculated by dividing the stock (supply) with the flow (annual production). Higher the S2F value, more scarce is the commodity. PlanB used this table to showcase how this works: The S2F values of some precious metals | Source: PlanB As you can see, the above table shows data for a few precious metals. The SF value indicates how many years it will take based on the production levels (or flow) to mine out the same amount as the current stock. For example, in the case of gold, the SF value is 62, which indicates it would take 62 years to take the current stock out of ground. Related Reading | Why This U.S. Congressman Compared Bitcoin Investment With Playing The Lottery Such a high value means that gold is a relatively scarce commodity compared to, say, silver, which has its SF value at 22. During 2019, when this table was released, Bitcoin’s SF value was 25, which means it was scarcer than silver, but not gold. However, there is one thing to note here. BTC is different to gold and other metals in that their S2F value won’t practically increase much. Current stock-to-flow value of Bitcoin is around 49, which means the cryptocurrency has only gotten scarcer over the years. The reason behind BTC’s S2F value sharply going up is the halving (where flow is halved). With each halving, the coin will continue to get scarcer. Now, here is how the S2F value correlates with the price. Model price (USD) = exp(-1.84) * SF ^ 3.36 The model is based on the above formula. This is how the chart was generated. Looking back at which, in 2019 almost the same amount of deviation was observed as in 2021 right now. Related Reading | A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered The 2019 price went back in line with the chart shortly after, while it remains to be seen whether the same will happen this time. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, BTC‘s price is around $33k. It’s down about 5% in the last 7 days, and almost 8% in the past month. BTC seems to be going down again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Bitcoin seems to be in a bear market right now, but if the S2F model holds true, the price should go up soon to remain in line with it. The next few months will be a real test for the method.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":466663,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,679,1119,49380,65663],"class_list":["post-466640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-planb","tag-s2f"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPlan B: The Next 6 Months Will Make Or Break Famed Bitcoin Model<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The next 6 months will make or break S2F, the most famous Bitcoin model, says PlanB who popularized the method. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Plan B: The Next 6 Months Will Make Or Break Famed Bitcoin Model","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/plan-b-famed-bitcoin-model\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/plan-b-famed-bitcoin-model\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/executium-hoIcYHhzUyE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/executium-hoIcYHhzUyE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin price","btc","planb","s2f"],"dateCreated":"2021-07-01T18:15:58Z","datePublished":"2021-07-01T18:15:58Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T13:56:45Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Plan B: The Next 6 Months Will Make Or Break Famed Bitcoin Model\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/plan-b-famed-bitcoin-model\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/plan-b-famed-bitcoin-model\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/executium-hoIcYHhzUyE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/executium-hoIcYHhzUyE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin price\",\"btc\",\"planb\",\"s2f\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2021-07-01T18:15:58Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-01T18:15:58Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T13:56:45Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/executium-hoIcYHhzUyE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466640"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=466640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466640\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/466663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=466640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=466640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=466640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}