{"id":498171,"date":"2022-08-09T12:16:03","date_gmt":"2022-08-09T12:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=498171"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:22:19","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:22:19","slug":"the-bear-market-correction-could-be-over-according-to-ark-reasoning-inside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/the-bear-market-correction-could-be-over-according-to-ark-reasoning-inside\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bear Market Correction Could Be Over, According To ARK. Reasoning Inside"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Rejoice! The bear market might be over. That\u2019s the main thesis behind <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ark-invest.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/ARK-Invest_The-Bitcoin-Monthly_July-2022.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">July\u2019s \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> report. \u201cBecause bitcoin\u2019s price did not rise parabolically during the 2021 bull market, its bear market correction could be over,\u201d ARK reasons. And it makes sense, the numbers seem to suggest it, and it feels like it. However, are we fooling ourselves? Is ARK\u2019s reasoning wishful thinking? Let\u2019s examine the data and see what it tells us.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">First of all, \u201cbitcoin closed the month of July up 16.6%, rising from $19,965 to $23,325, its most significant gain since October 2021.\u201d So far, so good. Can we declare that the bear market correction is over, though? Well, \u201cthe likelihood of touching its delta cost basis has diminished, bitcoin\u2019s downside risk in a bear market technically stands at its delta cost basis, currently $13,890.\u201d This number seems far away. Maybe bitcoin is slowly getting out of its slum.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cBitcoin has corrected 72% relative to its alltime high. Although this drawdown is consistent with intracyclical corrections, like the COVID collapse in 2020, bitcoin usually finds global cyclical bottoms with a correction greater than 80%.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That doesn\u2019t sound as promising. Maybe there\u2019s more pain ahead, however\u2026 \u201cGiven the positive correlation between bitcoin and US equities since COVID, the US being the leading price mover of bitcoin suggests an emerging risk-on market environment,\u201d ARK claims. Apparently, the US has been leading the bulls lately. Perfect. Bitcoin needs all the help it can get in these trying times.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Are We Leaving The Bear Market? Let\u2019s Look At The Signs<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cContagion in the crypto markets appears to be contained, as Celsius and Three Arrows Capital officially file for bankruptcy.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Announcing the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/cel-price-plummets-50\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Celsius news, NewsBTC<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> said \u201cAfter weeks of conjecture and hearsay, Celsius\u2019s legal counsels have formally informed regulators that the cryptocurrency lender has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.\u201d Announcing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/crypto-hedge-fund-3-arrows-capital-3ac-files-for-bankruptcy\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the 3AC one<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, we said, \u201cCrypto hedge fund 3 Arrows Capital is slated to be another pillar piece of 2022\u2019s bear market headlines, joining the likes of brutal bear market moments that include Terra Luna\u2019s downfall and CeFi\u2019s drama.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cLeverage appears to be unwinding across the crypto ecosystem, paving a path to recovery\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That&#8217;s phenomenal. May this continue to happen.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cAfter trading below its investor cost basis for the first time since March 2020, bitcoin has reclaimed major support levels and is trading above its market cost basis.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Great news. Is this real, then? Are we getting out of the bear market this fast?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-498135 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/BTCUSD_2022-08-09_04-17-39.png?resize=460%2C256\" alt=\"BTCUSD price chart for 08\/09\/2022 - TradingView\" width=\"460\" height=\"256\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">BTC price chart for 08\/09\/2022 on Kraken | Source: BTC\/USD on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Other Factors, Miners And Lightning<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cDespite continued miner pressure, bitcoin\u2019s economics are at equilibrium.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ok, some miners sold and others turned down their machines. However, the pressure seems to be subsiding and the sun seems to be shining.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cBitcoin\u2019s scaling solutions appear to be gaining momentum, as capacity on the Lightning Network reaches an all-time high.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Lightning Network went head to head with the bear market and didn\u2019t even flinch. People are building and the L2 solution is bigger and better than ever. \u201cLN capacity growth seems to accelerate during bear markets, marking a shift in sentiment from exuberance and speculation to testing and building longterm solutions for bitcoin.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cGiven continued declines in economic activity, including employment, the Federal Reserve could pivot during the second half of the year.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Is the US in the middle of a recession? Opinions vary, but the results are the same. People all over the world are struggling. \u201cThe drop was attributable largely to a decrease in inventories, residential and non-residential investments, and government spending. Strong recession signals could compel the Fed to change its hawkish stance,\u201d ARK states.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">&#8220;The 10-year Treasury bond yield has been unable to sustain a move above 3% and is now falling, posing less competition to cryptoassets.&#8221;<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Government bonds were the safest investment for years and years. Nowadays, they\u2019re not the new kid on the block anymore. Bitcoin is the new kid on the block. This bear market might not have been more than \u201cbrief deviation.\u201d We might be back in business after all.<\/span><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">Featured Image by <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/users\/alexas_fotos-686414\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=1799224\" rel=\"nofollow\">Alexa<\/a> from <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=1799224\" rel=\"nofollow\">Pixabay<\/a> | Charts by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rejoice! The bear market might be over. That\u2019s the main thesis behind July\u2019s \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d report. \u201cBecause bitcoin\u2019s price did not rise parabolically during the 2021 bull market, its bear market correction could be over,\u201d ARK reasons. And it makes sense, the numbers seem to suggest it, and it feels like it. However, are we fooling ourselves? Is ARK\u2019s reasoning wishful thinking? Let\u2019s examine the data and see what it tells us. First of all, \u201cbitcoin closed the month of July up 16.6%, rising from $19,965 to $23,325, its most significant gain since October 2021.\u201d So far, so good. Can we declare that the bear market correction is over, though? Well, \u201cthe likelihood of touching its delta cost basis has diminished, bitcoin\u2019s downside risk in a bear market technically stands at its delta cost basis, currently $13,890.\u201d This number seems far away. Maybe bitcoin is slowly getting out of its slum.\u00a0 \u201cBitcoin has corrected 72% relative to its alltime high. Although this drawdown is consistent with intracyclical corrections, like the COVID collapse in 2020, bitcoin usually finds global cyclical bottoms with a correction greater than 80%.\u201d That doesn\u2019t sound as promising. Maybe there\u2019s more pain ahead, however\u2026 \u201cGiven the positive correlation between bitcoin and US equities since COVID, the US being the leading price mover of bitcoin suggests an emerging risk-on market environment,\u201d ARK claims. Apparently, the US has been leading the bulls lately. Perfect. Bitcoin needs all the help it can get in these trying times. Are We Leaving The Bear Market? Let\u2019s Look At The Signs \u201cContagion in the crypto markets appears to be contained, as Celsius and Three Arrows Capital officially file for bankruptcy.\u201d Announcing the Celsius news, NewsBTC said \u201cAfter weeks of conjecture and hearsay, Celsius\u2019s legal counsels have formally informed regulators that the cryptocurrency lender has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.\u201d Announcing the 3AC one, we said, \u201cCrypto hedge fund 3 Arrows Capital is slated to be another pillar piece of 2022\u2019s bear market headlines, joining the likes of brutal bear market moments that include Terra Luna\u2019s downfall and CeFi\u2019s drama.\u201d \u201cLeverage appears to be unwinding across the crypto ecosystem, paving a path to recovery\u201d That&#8217;s phenomenal. May this continue to happen. \u201cAfter trading below its investor cost basis for the first time since March 2020, bitcoin has reclaimed major support levels and is trading above its market cost basis.\u201d Great news. Is this real, then? Are we getting out of the bear market this fast? BTC price chart for 08\/09\/2022 on Kraken | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com Other Factors, Miners And Lightning \u201cDespite continued miner pressure, bitcoin\u2019s economics are at equilibrium.\u201d Ok, some miners sold and others turned down their machines. However, the pressure seems to be subsiding and the sun seems to be shining.\u00a0 \u201cBitcoin\u2019s scaling solutions appear to be gaining momentum, as capacity on the Lightning Network reaches an all-time high.\u201d The Lightning Network went head to head with the bear market and didn\u2019t even flinch. People are building and the L2 solution is bigger and better than ever. \u201cLN capacity growth seems to accelerate during bear markets, marking a shift in sentiment from exuberance and speculation to testing and building longterm solutions for bitcoin.\u201d \u201cGiven continued declines in economic activity, including employment, the Federal Reserve could pivot during the second half of the year.\u201d Is the US in the middle of a recession? Opinions vary, but the results are the same. People all over the world are struggling. \u201cThe drop was attributable largely to a decrease in inventories, residential and non-residential investments, and government spending. Strong recession signals could compel the Fed to change its hawkish stance,\u201d ARK states.\u00a0 &#8220;The 10-year Treasury bond yield has been unable to sustain a move above 3% and is now falling, posing less competition to cryptoassets.&#8221; Government bonds were the safest investment for years and years. Nowadays, they\u2019re not the new kid on the block anymore. Bitcoin is the new kid on the block. This bear market might not have been more than \u201cbrief deviation.\u201d We might be back in business after all. Featured Image by Alexa from Pixabay | Charts by TradingView<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":539,"featured_media":498172,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[86553,9679,86118,5687,86373,83722,86372,86554,86555,15834,7920,86556,86110,83797,86552],"class_list":["post-498171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-3-arrows-capital","tag-ark","tag-arks-the-bitcoin-monthly-report","tag-bear-market","tag-bear-market-2022","tag-celsius","tag-contagion-event","tag-covid","tag-delta-cost-basis","tag-leverage","tag-recession","tag-risk-on-market","tag-the-bitcoin-monthly","tag-the-lightning-network","tag-treasury-bond-yield"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>The Bear Market Correction Could Be Over, According To ARK. 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