{"id":513505,"date":"2022-12-23T05:11:05","date_gmt":"2022-12-23T10:11:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=513505"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:06:48","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:06:48","slug":"bitcoin-poised-to-rally-big-time-on-pce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-to-rally-big-time-on-pce\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Price Poised To Rally Big-Time On Today&#8217;s PCE Release"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Bitcoin price could see a significant uptick today Friday, December 23 at 8:30 am (EST) if the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) comes in better than expected. And the chances are high!<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin price has been heavily dependent on macro data and the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) lately. The last <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/upcoming-fomc-meeting-is-the-most-important-ever-for-bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">FOMC meeting<\/a> of the year on December 13 provided a bearish surprise, even though the consumer price index (CPI) came in better than expected.<\/p>\n<p>However, there was a catch. After the FOMC meeting, rumors emerged that chairman Jerome Powell ignored the <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/breaking-news-ticker\/bitcoin-price-breaks-above-18200-cpi-data-comes-in-better-than-expected\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">CPI data<\/a> that arrived a few hours before the meeting, although he claimed the opposite in the press conference. Within Wall Street, several analysts spoke out, accusing Powell of hoaxes.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Today&#8217;s Core PCE Is Of Paramount Importance<\/h2>\n<p>The problem is that the Fed&#8217;s forecast for core PCE inflation seems far too high after the surprisingly weak CPI data, as Tomas Lee, an analyst at Fundstrat, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/fundstrat\/status\/69544963\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">writes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As the economic forecast overview shows, the FED raised the core PCE inflation target for 2022 from 4.5% to 4.8%. With that, Powell added to the &#8220;higher for longer&#8221; narrative. But there is something &#8220;odd,&#8221; as Lee explained. The month-to-month percentage change in inflation would have to be staggeringly high to reach the FED&#8217;s 4.8% target.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/analysis\/btc\/bitcoin-price-shows-life-17k\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin Price Shows Signs of Life and Could Soon Clear This Hurdle<\/a><\/div>\n<p>Lee wonders how the FED can forecast 4.8% core PCE inflation in 2022 when inflation is moving toward 4.1-4.2%. &#8220;How can Fed forecast be so far??&#8221; Lee wrote.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst points to a ransomware attack on Haver Analytics as a possible reason for this large divergence. Due to the attack, Haver Analytics may not have been able to update the data, which is why Jerome Powell and the FOMC committee ignored the positive data.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, according to the Fundstrat analyst, today&#8217;s PCE release is of massive importance. Lee writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>We think core PCE inflation will be 0.10% compared to Cleveland Fed inflation NOW forecast of 0.26%. Any figure below 0.40% would make #FOMC figure of 4.8% too high.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Remarkably, the PCE is also the key data point for the U.S. central bank. The FED&#8217;s forecasts and its 2% target are not based on CPI, but on the PCE. Twitter user ZeroHedge <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/00142592\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">estimated<\/a> based on this fact:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>If tomorrow&#8217;s core PCE is 4.5% or lower (~75% chance), the entire hawkish FOMC repricing is blown out &#8211; no way 4.8% core PCE in December, SEP\/Dots repriced and terminal rate tumbles.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>The Impact On The Bitcoin Price<\/h2>\n<p>If the PCE is significantly below the FED&#8217;s expectations, the theory would find confirmation today and could completely wipe out the bearish sentiment. The FED would possibly be forced to revise its forecasts as the PCE shows that inflation is under control.<\/p>\n<p>This could prompt the FED to take a more dovish stance at the next meeting, with markets front-running this as early as today. Ultimately, the PCE release could lead to a weaker dollar, spurring risk assets like Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-volatility-spike-2022-which-way\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin Volatility Will Spike By End 2022, Which Way Will It Push BTC?<\/a><\/div>\n<p>At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $16,827. Today, like the last few days, the $16,900 level will be of <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/analysis\/btc\/bitcoin-price-shows-life-17k\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">key importance<\/a> as the most crucial resistance at the moment.<\/p>\n<p>If there is a strong push above this resistance, the next target would be the $17,400 region. Otherwise, Bitcoin investors should keep an eye on the support at $16,400.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_513515\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-513515\" style=\"width: 3620px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-513515 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?resize=3620%2C1613\" alt=\"Bitcoin BTC USD 2022-12-23\" width=\"3620\" height=\"1613\" srcset=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=3620 3620w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=460 460w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=768 768w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=860 860w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=750 750w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=1140 1140w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/BTCUSD_2022-12-23_10-10-05.png?w=3000 3000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-513515\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BTC price, 4-hour chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image from Traxer \/ Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Bitcoin price could see a significant uptick today Friday, December 23 at 8:30 am (EST) if the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) comes in better than expected. And the chances are high! Bitcoin price has been heavily dependent on macro data and the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) lately. The last FOMC meeting of the year on December 13 provided a bearish surprise, even though the consumer price index (CPI) came in better than expected. However, there was a catch. After the FOMC meeting, rumors emerged that chairman Jerome Powell ignored the CPI data that arrived a few hours before the meeting, although he claimed the opposite in the press conference. Within Wall Street, several analysts spoke out, accusing Powell of hoaxes. Why Today&#8217;s Core PCE Is Of Paramount Importance The problem is that the Fed&#8217;s forecast for core PCE inflation seems far too high after the surprisingly weak CPI data, as Tomas Lee, an analyst at Fundstrat, writes. As the economic forecast overview shows, the FED raised the core PCE inflation target for 2022 from 4.5% to 4.8%. With that, Powell added to the &#8220;higher for longer&#8221; narrative. But there is something &#8220;odd,&#8221; as Lee explained. The month-to-month percentage change in inflation would have to be staggeringly high to reach the FED&#8217;s 4.8% target. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Shows Signs of Life and Could Soon Clear This Hurdle Lee wonders how the FED can forecast 4.8% core PCE inflation in 2022 when inflation is moving toward 4.1-4.2%. &#8220;How can Fed forecast be so far??&#8221; Lee wrote. The analyst points to a ransomware attack on Haver Analytics as a possible reason for this large divergence. Due to the attack, Haver Analytics may not have been able to update the data, which is why Jerome Powell and the FOMC committee ignored the positive data. Therefore, according to the Fundstrat analyst, today&#8217;s PCE release is of massive importance. Lee writes: We think core PCE inflation will be 0.10% compared to Cleveland Fed inflation NOW forecast of 0.26%. Any figure below 0.40% would make #FOMC figure of 4.8% too high. Remarkably, the PCE is also the key data point for the U.S. central bank. The FED&#8217;s forecasts and its 2% target are not based on CPI, but on the PCE. Twitter user ZeroHedge estimated based on this fact: If tomorrow&#8217;s core PCE is 4.5% or lower (~75% chance), the entire hawkish FOMC repricing is blown out &#8211; no way 4.8% core PCE in December, SEP\/Dots repriced and terminal rate tumbles. The Impact On The Bitcoin Price If the PCE is significantly below the FED&#8217;s expectations, the theory would find confirmation today and could completely wipe out the bearish sentiment. The FED would possibly be forced to revise its forecasts as the PCE shows that inflation is under control. This could prompt the FED to take a more dovish stance at the next meeting, with markets front-running this as early as today. Ultimately, the PCE release could lead to a weaker dollar, spurring risk assets like Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility Will Spike By End 2022, Which Way Will It Push BTC? At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $16,827. Today, like the last few days, the $16,900 level will be of key importance as the most crucial resistance at the moment. If there is a strong push above this resistance, the next target would be the $17,400 region. Otherwise, Bitcoin investors should keep an eye on the support at $16,400. Featured image from Traxer \/ Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":513513,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,84888,2007,2084,87652,83696],"class_list":["post-513505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-cpi","tag-fed","tag-fomc","tag-pce","tag-powell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Bitcoin Price Poised To Rally Big-Time On Today&#039;s PCE Release<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bitcoin price could see a significant uptick today Friday, December 23 at 8:30 am (EST) if the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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Through his extensive work with uniquehot.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. 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