{"id":522743,"date":"2023-03-12T16:44:31","date_gmt":"2023-03-12T16:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=522743"},"modified":"2023-03-13T05:06:25","modified_gmt":"2023-03-13T05:06:25","slug":"silicon-valley-bank-falls-will-us-interest-rates-fall-to-3-75","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/silicon-valley-bank-falls-will-us-interest-rates-fall-to-3-75\/","title":{"rendered":"Silicon Valley Bank Falls – Will US Interest Rates Drop To 3.75%?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a recent CNBC interview, Larry McDonald, the author of “The Bear Traps Report,” believes that the current turmoil in the financial markets may prompt a sharp reversal from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening aimed at taming inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Regime<\/span><\/h2>\n

With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, McDonald speculates that the Federal Reserve would slash interest rates by up to 100 basis points by December to prevent contagion in the financial system. This means interest rates could drop from the current 4.75% to 3.75% in the next nine months.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/iframe><\/div>\n

The Fed has gradually increased interest rates over the past few years to 4.75% as of March 2023. This monetary policy decision aims to curb inflation which has seen consumer prices rise 7% year-on-year since Dec. 2021. The impact of rate hikes has increased short-term interest rates, making Treasuries more attractive to citizens and leading to deposits being drained from regional banks like SVB.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Related Reading: Is Moody\u2019s Ratings Downgrade The Reason Why Silicon Valley Bank Fell?<\/a><\/div>\n

On the other end, the hawkish regime of the Fed also makes it difficult and costly for citizens to borrow more, which reduces the supply of money circulating through the economy. Accordingly, investment in stocks and cryptocurrencies contracted as capital flew to safe havens like the USD and bonds, impacting coin prices like Bitcoin. <\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price On March 12| Source: BTCUSDT On Binance, TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Higher interest rates also led to a $1.8 billion loss on SVB’s portfolio. This, in turn, stressed the bank, eventually triggering a dump of SVB shares when they failed to get a buyer. The situation got worse when several venture capital firms advised their portfolio companies to withdraw money from the bank.<\/span><\/p>\n

Silicon Valley Bank Contagion Risk
\n<\/span><\/h2>\n

While some analysts fear SVB’s troubles could spread to other financial institutions and trigger a systemic crisis, McDonald thinks the risks are limited.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He argues that big banks have the resources and risk management expertise to manage the current interest rate. Moreover, he believes regional banks like SVB are poorly equipped for this hawkish regime.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Related Reading: Will The United States Federal Reserve Bail Out Silicon Valley Bank?<\/a><\/div>\n

The CNBC contributor believes the Fed may need to bring out the “other firehose” and cut rates within six to nine months as the contagion\u00a0<\/span>spreads<\/span><\/a> across the ecosystem, affecting high-yield and leveraged loans. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Fed’s decision to cut rates could mark a significant shift in its current policy of aggressive tightening. Subsequently, this could highlight the risks and uncertainties in the current economic environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although massive banks can weather the turmoil, the impact on the technology industry and crypto startups should not be underestimated. Considering that many technology startups use SVB, these entrepreneurs are at risk of a liquidity crisis.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Featured Image From Dado Ruvi\u0107\/Reuters, Chart from TradingView<\/em><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a recent CNBC interview, Larry McDonald, the author of “The Bear Traps Report,” believes that the current turmoil in the financial markets may prompt a sharp reversal from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening aimed at taming inflation. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Regime With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, McDonald speculates that the Federal Reserve would slash interest rates by up to 100 basis points by December to prevent contagion in the financial system. This means interest rates could drop from the current 4.75% to 3.75% in the next nine months. The Fed has gradually increased interest rates over the past few years to 4.75% as of March 2023. This monetary policy decision aims to curb inflation which has seen consumer prices rise 7% year-on-year since Dec. 2021. The impact of rate hikes has increased short-term interest rates, making Treasuries more attractive to citizens and leading to deposits being drained from regional banks like SVB.\u00a0 Related Reading: Is Moody\u2019s Ratings Downgrade The Reason Why Silicon Valley Bank Fell? On the other end, the hawkish regime of the Fed also makes it difficult and costly for citizens to borrow more, which reduces the supply of money circulating through the economy. Accordingly, investment in stocks and cryptocurrencies contracted as capital flew to safe havens like the USD and bonds, impacting coin prices like Bitcoin. Higher interest rates also led to a $1.8 billion loss on SVB’s portfolio. This, in turn, stressed the bank, eventually triggering a dump of SVB shares when they failed to get a buyer. The situation got worse when several venture capital firms advised their portfolio companies to withdraw money from the bank. Silicon Valley Bank Contagion Risk While some analysts fear SVB’s troubles could spread to other financial institutions and trigger a systemic crisis, McDonald thinks the risks are limited.\u00a0 He argues that big banks have the resources and risk management expertise to manage the current interest rate. Moreover, he believes regional banks like SVB are poorly equipped for this hawkish regime. Related Reading: Will The United States Federal Reserve Bail Out Silicon Valley Bank? The CNBC contributor believes the Fed may need to bring out the “other firehose” and cut rates within six to nine months as the contagion\u00a0spreads across the ecosystem, affecting high-yield and leveraged loans. The Fed’s decision to cut rates could mark a significant shift in its current policy of aggressive tightening. Subsequently, this could highlight the risks and uncertainties in the current economic environment. Although massive banks can weather the turmoil, the impact on the technology industry and crypto startups should not be underestimated. Considering that many technology startups use SVB, these entrepreneurs are at risk of a liquidity crisis. Featured Image From Dado Ruvi\u0107\/Reuters, Chart from TradingView<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":522744,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,7918,2438,87970],"class_list":["post-522743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-federal-reserve","tag-inflation","tag-silicon-valley-bank"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSilicon Valley Bank Falls, Will US Interest Rates Fall To 3.75%?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An analyst thinks the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates to 3.75% by December 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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His analysis wasn't just dry facts and figures; it crackled with insight, dissecting the implications of the partnership and its potential impact on the future of finance. His deep understanding of the financial markets, technological advancements, and blockchain developments has made him a respected voice in the industry. Dalmas is also the founder of BTC-Pulse, a crypto news site, further demonstrating his commitment to the field. He firmly believes that DeFi and NFTs are here to stay and will continue to drive financial inclusion. Coming from Nairobi, Kenya, it is easy to see the source of his inspiration: Across Africa, millions lack access to traditional banks. Remote villages, limited documentation, and high minimum balances create insurmountable barriers. DeFi, not just Maker or Aave, for example, but think of Bitcoin and USDT, cuts out the middleman. Forget banks with their limitations. Even so, DeFi isn't a magic solution. The continent still struggles with reliable internet access, and educational campaigns highlighting the benefits of this wonderful solution are insufficient. Moreover, even for those interested, understanding DeFi can look like learning a new language. Dalmas is here to help make the tech easy to understand and digestible, even for beginners. The story of DeFi in Africa is still being written. Challenges abound, but the promise of a more inclusive financial future is a powerful motivator. With innovation and collaboration, Dalmas firmly believes that DeFi could become the key to unlocking Africa's full economic potential. This possibility and its immense value motivate Dalmas to continue breaking key DeFi innovations and more across the globe. His engineering background further enhances his ability to deliver well-thought-out pieces that blend technical insight with clear, impactful reporting. Beyond his professional achievements, Dalmas is deeply passionate about technology and politics. Policies drive adoption, and being at the forefront and keeping up with how they evolve is crucial for the sphere to mature. When Dalmas is not closely monitoring the latest crypto events, he can be found in nature, exploring the picturesque countryside, and traveling with his family and friends. His love for adventure and discovery perfectly complements his investigative and reporting skills. You can connect with Dalmas on X: @Dalmas_Ngetich, or contact him on Telegram @Dalmas_Ngetich.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/dalmas-ngetich-40a67a147\/","https:\/\/x.com\/Dalmas_Ngetich"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/dalmasngetich\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Silicon Valley Bank Falls – Will US Interest Rates Drop To 3.75%?","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/silicon-valley-bank-falls-will-us-interest-rates-fall-to-3-75\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/silicon-valley-bank-falls-will-us-interest-rates-fall-to-3-75\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Silicon-Valley-Bank-and-Federal-Reserve.png?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Silicon-Valley-Bank-and-Federal-Reserve.png?fit=1200%2C720"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Dalmas Ngetich"}],"creator":["Dalmas Ngetich"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","federal reserve","inflation","silicon valley bank"],"dateCreated":"2023-03-12T16:44:31Z","datePublished":"2023-03-12T16:44:31Z","dateModified":"2023-03-13T05:06:25Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Silicon Valley Bank Falls – Will US Interest Rates Drop To 3.75%?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/silicon-valley-bank-falls-will-us-interest-rates-fall-to-3-75\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/silicon-valley-bank-falls-will-us-interest-rates-fall-to-3-75\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/Silicon-Valley-Bank-and-Federal-Reserve.png?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/Silicon-Valley-Bank-and-Federal-Reserve.png?fit=1200%2C720\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Dalmas Ngetich\"}],\"creator\":[\"Dalmas Ngetich\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"federal reserve\",\"inflation\",\"silicon valley bank\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-03-12T16:44:31Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-12T16:44:31Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-13T05:06:25Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Silicon-Valley-Bank-and-Federal-Reserve.png?fit=1200%2C720","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/522743"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=522743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/522743\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/522744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=522743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=522743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=522743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}