{"id":525525,"date":"2023-04-04T14:00:12","date_gmt":"2023-04-04T14:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=525525"},"modified":"2024-06-11T11:20:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T11:20:06","slug":"why-bitcoin-break-at-least-33000-this-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/why-bitcoin-break-at-least-33000-this-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Here’s Why Bitcoin Could Break At Least $33,000 In This Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin may be able to break the $33,000 mark in the current rally if this historical pattern of an on-chain indicator is anything to go by.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Realized Price-To-Liveliness Ratio Has A Value Of $33,200 Currently<\/h2>\n

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode<\/a>, BTC is currently in a range that has historically been associated with a macro transitional phase. The indicator of interest here is the “realized price<\/a>,” which is a value derived from a Bitcoin capitalization model called the realized cap.<\/p>\n

Unlike the usual market cap, the realized cap says that the true value of a coin in the circulating BTC supply is the price at which it was last transferred and not the current Bitcoin price.<\/p>\n

The realized price is obtained from this model by dividing it by the total number of coins in circulation. The significance of this price is that it represents the cost basis (the acquisition price) of the average holder in the market.<\/p>\n

This means that if the normal price dips below this metric’s value, then the average investor in the sector enters into a state of loss. Naturally, a break above the level implies a return of profitability for the market.<\/p>\n

Now, the realized price makes the lower bound of the aforementioned macro transitional phase as the worst parts of historical Bitcoin bear markets have occurred when the price has been below this level.<\/p>\n

The below chart shows the trend in this indicator:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the price is significantly above this level now | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 14, 2023<\/a><\/pre>\n
As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin broke above the realized price earlier in the year when the ongoing rally<\/a> first started. This was a signal that the coin had entered into the transitional period between bearish and bullish trends.<\/p>\n
The realized price currently has a value of $19,800, which means the coin has now taken quite a distance over it. Now, BTC is not too far from the upper bound of this historical range, which is made by a metric called the realized price-to-liveliness ratio.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Dogecoin Flips Cardano In Market Cap, Becomes 7th Largest Crypto<\/a><\/div>\n
This indicator is a modified version of the realized price that accounts for the degree of HODLing taking place on the network. As for why this weighting factor is applied to the realized price, Glassnode explains, “large scale HODLing acts to constrain supply, increasing the estimated ‘fair value’, and vice-versa.”<\/p>\n
Currently, the realized price-to-liveliness ratio has a value of around $33,200. From the chart, it’s apparent that tops of bull rallies have historically taken form at or above this level.<\/p>\n
The April 2019 rally<\/a>, with which the current rally shares many similarities, also saw BTC break above this indicator before a top was encountered. If these previous instances are anything to consider, it appears possible that the current rally in the cryptocurrency will also at least touch the upper bound of this transitional zone.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Plunges, Why This Could Be Bullish<\/a><\/div>\n
A retest of this level, however, doesn’t necessarily have to take place soon. In the 2015-2016 bear market, the asset spent 234 days in this period before it touched the upper bound of this zone. The current cycle has so far seen the coin spend a total of 116 days here.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,300, up 6% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC has moved sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin may be able to break the $33,000 mark in the current rally if this historical pattern of an on-chain indicator is anything to go by. Bitcoin Realized Price-To-Liveliness Ratio Has A Value Of $33,200 Currently According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, BTC is currently in a range that has historically been associated with a macro transitional phase. The indicator of interest here is the “realized price,” which is a value derived from a Bitcoin capitalization model called the realized cap. Unlike the usual market cap, the realized cap says that the true value of a coin in the circulating BTC supply is the price at which it was last transferred and not the current Bitcoin price. The realized price is obtained from this model by dividing it by the total number of coins in circulation. The significance of this price is that it represents the cost basis (the acquisition price) of the average holder in the market. This means that if the normal price dips below this metric’s value, then the average investor in the sector enters into a state of loss. Naturally, a break above the level implies a return of profitability for the market. Now, the realized price makes the lower bound of the aforementioned macro transitional phase as the worst parts of historical Bitcoin bear markets have occurred when the price has been below this level. The below chart shows the trend in this indicator: Looks like the price is significantly above this level now | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 14, 2023 As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin broke above the realized price earlier in the year when the ongoing rally first started. This was a signal that the coin had entered into the transitional period between bearish and bullish trends. The realized price currently has a value of $19,800, which means the coin has now taken quite a distance over it. Now, BTC is not too far from the upper bound of this historical range, which is made by a metric called the realized price-to-liveliness ratio. Related Reading: Dogecoin Flips Cardano In Market Cap, Becomes 7th Largest Crypto This indicator is a modified version of the realized price that accounts for the degree of HODLing taking place on the network. As for why this weighting factor is applied to the realized price, Glassnode explains, “large scale HODLing acts to constrain supply, increasing the estimated ‘fair value’, and vice-versa.” Currently, the realized price-to-liveliness ratio has a value of around $33,200. From the chart, it’s apparent that tops of bull rallies have historically taken form at or above this level. The April 2019 rally, with which the current rally shares many similarities, also saw BTC break above this indicator before a top was encountered. If these previous instances are anything to consider, it appears possible that the current rally in the cryptocurrency will also at least touch the upper bound of this transitional zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Plunges, Why This Could Be Bullish A retest of this level, however, doesn’t necessarily have to take place soon. In the 2015-2016 bear market, the asset spent 234 days in this period before it touched the upper bound of this zone. The current cycle has so far seen the coin spend a total of 116 days here. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,300, up 6% in the last week. BTC has moved sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":525536,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,6481,86297,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-525525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-rally","tag-bitcoin-realized-price","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHere's Why Bitcoin Could Break At Least $33,000 In This Rally<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin may be able to break the $33,000 mark in the current rally if this historical pattern of an on-chain indicator is anything to go by. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Here’s Why Bitcoin Could Break At Least $33,000 In This Rally","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/why-bitcoin-break-at-least-33000-this-rally\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/why-bitcoin-break-at-least-33000-this-rally\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin rally","bitcoin realized price","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-04-04T14:00:12Z","datePublished":"2023-04-04T14:00:12Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T11:20:06Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Here’s Why Bitcoin Could Break At Least $33,000 In This Rally\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/why-bitcoin-break-at-least-33000-this-rally\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/why-bitcoin-break-at-least-33000-this-rally\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/04\\\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/04\\\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin rally\",\"bitcoin realized price\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-04-04T14:00:12Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-04T14:00:12Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T11:20:06Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525525"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=525525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525525\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/525536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=525525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=525525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=525525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}