{"id":527137,"date":"2023-04-17T16:30:44","date_gmt":"2023-04-17T16:30:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=527137"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:06:39","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:06:39","slug":"bitcoin-truly-done-with-cycle-lows-metric-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-truly-done-with-cycle-lows-metric-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin Truly Done With Cycle Lows? Here’s What This Metric Says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is Bitcoin truly done with the bear market bottom or is there more to come still? Here’s what the “RHODL ratio” has to say about it.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin RHODL Ratio Has Been Declining In Recent Days<\/h2>\n

As pointed out by an analyst on Twitter<\/a>, the leg for the next bull run could be here according to the RHODL ratio. The “Realized HODL<\/a>” (RHODL) ratio is an indicator that measures the ratio between two RHODL waves. The RHODL wave bands are groups of the Bitcoin supply divided based on the age of the coins. For example, the 1-2 years wave band includes all coins that are between one and two years old.<\/p>\n

Usually, the RHODL ratio is taken between segments of the “long-term holder” (LTH) and “short-term holder” (STH) groups. The LTHs include all investors that have been holding their coins since at least six months ago, while the STHs have been holding them since less than this threshold amount.<\/p>\n

In the context of the current discussion, the wavebands of interest are the 6 months to 2 years (meaning that the LTHs who bought within a cycle) and 1 day to 3 months (the youngest of the STHs).<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day Transaction Count Near Cycle Highs, Bullish Sign?<\/a><\/div>\n

The analyst here has taken the RHODL ratio between these two bands, meaning that its trend can provide hints about how the capital is rotating between the STHs and LTHs.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows how the Bitcoin RHODL ratio for these two groups has changed over the entire history of the cryptocurrency:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The value of the metric seems to have sharply declined in the last few months | Source: James V. Straten on Twitter<\/a><\/pre>\n
As shown in the above graph, the Bitcoin RHODL ratio for the 6 months to 2 years and 1 day to 3 months wave bands had hit some pretty high values back when the crash due to the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX<\/a> took place.<\/p>\n
So far, the lows that were observed after this crash have been the lowest the cryptocurrency has gone during the current cycle. In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted the trend that the indicator showed during the bear market bottoms<\/a> of the past cycles.<\/p>\n
It looks like the RHODL ratio for these cohorts has always hit relatively high values during the major bottoms in the asset’s price. If this historical trend is anything to go by, the fact that the lows after the FTX crash displayed a similar pattern may suggest that those prices were indeed cyclical lows.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Rise Fueled By Stablecoins, On-Chain Data Suggests<\/a><\/div>\n
There is always the chance, though, that the indicator could reverse its trend and rise to even higher highs, which would then coincide with the true cyclical lows for the asset. However, considering that the metric has been going down pretty sharply in the past few months, it would be quite unprecedented if the trend reverses now.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,500, up 4% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like the value of the asset has plunged over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Is Bitcoin truly done with the bear market bottom or is there more to come still? Here’s what the “RHODL ratio” has to say about it. Bitcoin RHODL Ratio Has Been Declining In Recent Days As pointed out by an analyst on Twitter, the leg for the next bull run could be here according to the RHODL ratio. The “Realized HODL” (RHODL) ratio is an indicator that measures the ratio between two RHODL waves. The RHODL wave bands are groups of the Bitcoin supply divided based on the age of the coins. For example, the 1-2 years wave band includes all coins that are between one and two years old. Usually, the RHODL ratio is taken between segments of the “long-term holder” (LTH) and “short-term holder” (STH) groups. The LTHs include all investors that have been holding their coins since at least six months ago, while the STHs have been holding them since less than this threshold amount. In the context of the current discussion, the wavebands of interest are the 6 months to 2 years (meaning that the LTHs who bought within a cycle) and 1 day to 3 months (the youngest of the STHs). Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day Transaction Count Near Cycle Highs, Bullish Sign? The analyst here has taken the RHODL ratio between these two bands, meaning that its trend can provide hints about how the capital is rotating between the STHs and LTHs. Now, here is a chart that shows how the Bitcoin RHODL ratio for these two groups has changed over the entire history of the cryptocurrency: The value of the metric seems to have sharply declined in the last few months | Source: James V. Straten on Twitter As shown in the above graph, the Bitcoin RHODL ratio for the 6 months to 2 years and 1 day to 3 months wave bands had hit some pretty high values back when the crash due to the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX took place. So far, the lows that were observed after this crash have been the lowest the cryptocurrency has gone during the current cycle. In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted the trend that the indicator showed during the bear market bottoms of the past cycles. It looks like the RHODL ratio for these cohorts has always hit relatively high values during the major bottoms in the asset’s price. If this historical trend is anything to go by, the fact that the lows after the FTX crash displayed a similar pattern may suggest that those prices were indeed cyclical lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rise Fueled By Stablecoins, On-Chain Data Suggests There is always the chance, though, that the indicator could reverse its trend and rise to even higher highs, which would then coincide with the true cyclical lows for the asset. However, considering that the metric has been going down pretty sharply in the past few months, it would be quite unprecedented if the trend reverses now. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,500, up 4% in the last week. Looks like the value of the asset has plunged over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":527175,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,27251,84666,85735,84852,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-527137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bottom","tag-bitcoin-long-term-holders","tag-bitcoin-rhodl-ratio","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Bitcoin Truly Done With Cycle Lows? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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