{"id":533260,"date":"2023-05-16T22:00:03","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T22:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=533260"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:08:38","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:08:38","slug":"bitcoin-metric-nearing-crucial-retest-will-bulls-find-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-metric-nearing-crucial-retest-will-bulls-find-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"This Bitcoin Metric Is At A Crucial Junction, Will Bulls Find Victory?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is currently retesting a crucial level that could decide the direction the market takes from here.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Plunged To A Value Of 1<\/h2>\n

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, the short-term holders are currently selling at their break-even mark. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio<\/a>” (SOPR), which tells us whether Bitcoin investors are moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now.<\/p>\n

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder in the market is currently selling their coins at a profit. On the other hand, the indicator having values below this threshold suggests the market as a whole is realizing a net amount of loss.<\/p>\n

The level at which SOPR becomes exactly equal to one implies that the loss realization is exactly equal to the profit realization right now, and hence, the average investor is just breaking even on their investment.<\/p>\n

In the context of the current topic, the entire market isn’t of interest; only a segment of it: the “short-term holders<\/a>” (STHs). The STHs include all BTC investors that bought their coins within the last 155 days.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 14-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin SOPR specifically for these STHs over the last few years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
Historically, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has followed a curious pattern. During bullish periods, the indicator has generally stayed above the line where the metric’s value becomes 1. This makes sense, as rallies allow the STHs many profit-taking opportunities, so the majority should be selling at some gains.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: PEPE Unlikely To Be As Big As DOGE & SHIB, Says Santiment<\/a><\/div>\n
What’s actually interesting, though, is that whenever the metric has dropped to the 1 line, it has provided support to the price (and has also made the indicator rebound back above it). Examples of this have been marked with the green arrows in the graph.<\/p>\n
As already mentioned before, the 1 line signifies the level where the average STH is just breaking even, meaning that they are selling at the price at which they acquired their coins, that is, their cost basis.<\/p>\n
The reason why this level acts as support during bullish trends is that the investors see their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity (since they believe the price would go up in the near future). So, a large amount of buying takes place here.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Aura Around PEPE Isn\u2019t Good For The Market, Especially Bitcoin \u2013 Here\u2019s Why<\/a><\/div>\n
In bear markets, the opposite behavior is seen; the level acts as resistance to the price since selling tends to happen at it. Because of this pattern, the indicator’s behavior about the 1 level can provide hints about whether a bullish or a bearish regime is active currently.<\/p>\n
Recently, the indicator has once again dipped to this crucial level. If the Bitcoin rally<\/a> is still on right now, then the Bitcoin STH SOPR should observe a rebound here. This has already happened once during this rally, as the price felt support at this level back in March.<\/p>\n
If, however, the retest ends up failing, then it may mean that a transition back to a bearish period may have occurred for the cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,000, down 2% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like BTC has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is currently retesting a crucial level that could decide the direction the market takes from here. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Plunged To A Value Of 1 As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the short-term holders are currently selling at their break-even mark. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR), which tells us whether Bitcoin investors are moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder in the market is currently selling their coins at a profit. On the other hand, the indicator having values below this threshold suggests the market as a whole is realizing a net amount of loss. The level at which SOPR becomes exactly equal to one implies that the loss realization is exactly equal to the profit realization right now, and hence, the average investor is just breaking even on their investment. In the context of the current topic, the entire market isn’t of interest; only a segment of it: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs include all BTC investors that bought their coins within the last 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 14-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin SOPR specifically for these STHs over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant Historically, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has followed a curious pattern. During bullish periods, the indicator has generally stayed above the line where the metric’s value becomes 1. This makes sense, as rallies allow the STHs many profit-taking opportunities, so the majority should be selling at some gains. Related Reading: PEPE Unlikely To Be As Big As DOGE & SHIB, Says Santiment What’s actually interesting, though, is that whenever the metric has dropped to the 1 line, it has provided support to the price (and has also made the indicator rebound back above it). Examples of this have been marked with the green arrows in the graph. As already mentioned before, the 1 line signifies the level where the average STH is just breaking even, meaning that they are selling at the price at which they acquired their coins, that is, their cost basis. The reason why this level acts as support during bullish trends is that the investors see their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity (since they believe the price would go up in the near future). So, a large amount of buying takes place here. Related Reading: Aura Around PEPE Isn\u2019t Good For The Market, Especially Bitcoin \u2013 Here\u2019s Why In bear markets, the opposite behavior is seen; the level acts as resistance to the price since selling tends to happen at it. Because of this pattern, the indicator’s behavior about the 1 level can provide hints about whether a bullish or a bearish regime is active currently. Recently, the indicator has once again dipped to this crucial level. If the Bitcoin rally is still on right now, then the Bitcoin STH SOPR should observe a rebound here. This has already happened once during this rally, as the price felt support at this level back in March. If, however, the retest ends up failing, then it may mean that a transition back to a bearish period may have occurred for the cryptocurrency. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,000, down 2% in the last week. Looks like BTC has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":533307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,14618,86576,84852,84438,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-533260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bulls","tag-bitcoin-retest","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-bitcoin-sopr","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThis Bitcoin Metric Is At A Crucial Junction, Will Bulls Find Victory?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is currently retesting a crucial level that could decide the direction the 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Verma","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/3d9c67b0b4a94fb480d44f29de96266e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/3d9c67b0b4a94fb480d44f29de96266e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Keshav Verma"},"description":"Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021. Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"This Bitcoin Metric Is At A Crucial Junction, Will Bulls Find Victory?","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-metric-nearing-crucial-retest-will-bulls-find-victory\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-metric-nearing-crucial-retest-will-bulls-find-victory\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iStock-1436397713.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iStock-1436397713.jpg?fit=2386%2C1256"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin bulls","bitcoin retest","bitcoin short-term holders","bitcoin sopr","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-05-16T22:00:03Z","datePublished":"2023-05-16T22:00:03Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:08:38Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"This Bitcoin Metric Is At A Crucial Junction, Will Bulls Find Victory?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-metric-nearing-crucial-retest-will-bulls-find-victory\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-metric-nearing-crucial-retest-will-bulls-find-victory\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/05\\\/iStock-1436397713.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/05\\\/iStock-1436397713.jpg?fit=2386%2C1256\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin bulls\",\"bitcoin retest\",\"bitcoin short-term holders\",\"bitcoin sopr\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-05-16T22:00:03Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-16T22:00:03Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:08:38Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iStock-1436397713.jpg?fit=2386%2C1256","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533260"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=533260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/533307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=533260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=533260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=533260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}