{"id":538550,"date":"2023-06-19T19:00:11","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T19:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=538550"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:11:47","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:11:47","slug":"bitcoin-short-term-holders-still-bullish-will-rally-restart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-still-bullish-will-rally-restart\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Still Bullish, Will Rally Restart?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders have participated in buying recently despite the price briefly dropping below their cost basis.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Has Rebounded Back Above Short-Term Holder Realized Price<\/h2>\n

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, the BTC price had recently fallen below the realized price of the short-term holders. The “realized price<\/a>” here refers to a metric that’s derived from the “realized cap.”<\/p>\n

The realized cap is a popular capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes that the true value of each coin in circulation is not the current spot price, but the price at which it was last moved\/sold on the blockchain.<\/p>\n

When this cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the “realized price” emerges. The significance of this indicator is that it represents the cost basis of the average investor in the market.<\/p>\n

In the context of the current discussion, the average acquisition price of the entire market isn’t of interest, however; the realized price for only a segment of the market is relevant: the short-term holders.<\/p>\n

The “short-term holders<\/a>” (STHs) here refer to investors who bought their coins less than 155 days ago. These investors are generally fickle and their behavior has historically been relevant to the trend BTC has followed.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH realized price over the past year:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The value of the metric seems to have been near the spot price recently | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
The STH realized price has historically displayed some interesting interactions with the spot price of Bitcoin. During bearish periods, the metric has provided resistance to the price, while in bullish trends, it has switched its role to being a support level.<\/p>\n
Both these patterns are also visible in the above graph, where the cryptocurrency saw a negative reaction to the line around the time of the November 2022 FTX collapse<\/a>, while it found support at it when the rally had taken a step back in March 2023.<\/p>\n
As for why this pattern exists at all, the reason likely lies in the fact that the STHs look at their cost basis differently depending on the wider trend being followed in the market at the time.<\/p>\n
During bear markets, the investors look at their acquisition price as a chance to escape. They believe that selling at their cost basis would at least mean that they can avoid taking losses. It’s this selling that becomes the source of resistance at the line.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Ethereum Cancun Upgrade: Why Arbitrum, Optimism Will Profit Massively<\/a><\/div>\n
In rallies, on the other hand, the STHs generally hold a bullish sentiment. They look at their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity, as they think that the price would go up in the near future. The mass buying when the price touches the line may explain why the asset has observed rebounds here.<\/p>\n
From the chart, it’s visible that Bitcoin had recently dipped slightly under this line, raising concerns about whether the bullish regime had come to an end. In the past few days, however, the asset has been able to regain itself back above the level.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Steadies Above $26K, Can Bulls Pump It Further?<\/a><\/p>\n
Since the STHs didn’t participate in selling at the level when the asset retested the line from below, it’s looking likely that they still lean towards a bullish sentiment. Naturally, this could suggest that the Bitcoin rally not be over yet after all.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,400, up 2% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC has recovered back above $26,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders have participated in buying recently despite the price briefly dropping below their cost basis. Bitcoin Has Rebounded Back Above Short-Term Holder Realized Price As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC price had recently fallen below the realized price of the short-term holders. The “realized price” here refers to a metric that’s derived from the “realized cap.” The realized cap is a popular capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes that the true value of each coin in circulation is not the current spot price, but the price at which it was last moved\/sold on the blockchain. When this cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the “realized price” emerges. The significance of this indicator is that it represents the cost basis of the average investor in the market. In the context of the current discussion, the average acquisition price of the entire market isn’t of interest, however; the realized price for only a segment of the market is relevant: the short-term holders. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to investors who bought their coins less than 155 days ago. These investors are generally fickle and their behavior has historically been relevant to the trend BTC has followed. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH realized price over the past year: The value of the metric seems to have been near the spot price recently | Source: CryptoQuant The STH realized price has historically displayed some interesting interactions with the spot price of Bitcoin. During bearish periods, the metric has provided resistance to the price, while in bullish trends, it has switched its role to being a support level. Both these patterns are also visible in the above graph, where the cryptocurrency saw a negative reaction to the line around the time of the November 2022 FTX collapse, while it found support at it when the rally had taken a step back in March 2023. As for why this pattern exists at all, the reason likely lies in the fact that the STHs look at their cost basis differently depending on the wider trend being followed in the market at the time. During bear markets, the investors look at their acquisition price as a chance to escape. They believe that selling at their cost basis would at least mean that they can avoid taking losses. It’s this selling that becomes the source of resistance at the line. Related Reading: Ethereum Cancun Upgrade: Why Arbitrum, Optimism Will Profit Massively In rallies, on the other hand, the STHs generally hold a bullish sentiment. They look at their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity, as they think that the price would go up in the near future. The mass buying when the price touches the line may explain why the asset has observed rebounds here. From the chart, it’s visible that Bitcoin had recently dipped slightly under this line, raising concerns about whether the bullish regime had come to an end. In the past few days, however, the asset has been able to regain itself back above the level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Steadies Above $26K, Can Bulls Pump It Further? Since the STHs didn’t participate in selling at the level when the asset retested the line from below, it’s looking likely that they still lean towards a bullish sentiment. Naturally, this could suggest that the Bitcoin rally not be over yet after all. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,400, up 2% in the last week. BTC has recovered back above $26,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":538592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,11680,6481,84852,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-538550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bullish","tag-bitcoin-rally","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Short-Term Holders Still Bullish, Will Rally Restart?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders have participated in buying recently despite the price briefly dropping below their cost basis.\" 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Still Bullish, Will Rally Restart?","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-still-bullish-will-rally-restart\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-still-bullish-will-rally-restart\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin bullish","bitcoin rally","bitcoin short-term holders","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-06-19T19:00:11Z","datePublished":"2023-06-19T19:00:11Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:11:47Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Still Bullish, Will Rally Restart?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-still-bullish-will-rally-restart\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-still-bullish-will-rally-restart\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/06\\\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/06\\\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin bullish\",\"bitcoin rally\",\"bitcoin short-term holders\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-06-19T19:00:11Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-19T19:00:11Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:11:47Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/538550"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=538550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/538550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/538592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=538550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=538550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=538550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}