{"id":547314,"date":"2023-08-15T11:50:32","date_gmt":"2023-08-15T11:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=547314"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:39:32","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:39:32","slug":"low-bitcoin-volatility-mirrors-2016-bullish-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/low-bitcoin-volatility-mirrors-2016-bullish-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"Low Bitcoin Volatility Mirrors 2016: A Bullish Breakout On The Horizon?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In today\u2019s micro update<\/a> from Capriole, founder Charles Edwards presented a compelling analysis that draws parallels between the current low volatility of Bitcoin and its historical behavior in 2016. With Bitcoin’s price stagnating around the $29,000 mark, experts are closely watching for signs of a potential bullish breakout.<\/p>\n

“Bitcoin\u2019s price remains at $29K, in a sideways consolidation that has created one of the absolute lowest volatility periods in Bitcoin\u2019s 14 year history,” Edwards states. This prolonged period of low volatility is reminiscent of 2016, suggesting that a significant price movement could be imminent.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Breakout Imminent?<\/h2>\n

While the technicals indicate a bearish breakdown from the $30,000 mark, the absence of a downward momentum offers a glimmer of hope for bullish investors. “If price was going to collapse, we would usually have seen that follow through by now,” the report notes. However, for a more concrete bullish sentiment, “a close back above $30K on the daily timeframe is required at the minimum as a technical confirmation of a failed breakdown.”<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bernstein Predicts Spot ETFs Could Claim 10% Of Bitcoin\u2019s Market If Greenlit<\/a><\/div>\n

On the fundamental front, Bitcoin’s on-chain data continues to contract, albeit at a decelerating rate. The imminent decisions on several<\/a> Bitcoin ETF approvals could potentially disrupt the current low volatility phase. “An approval could cause a break from the current low volatility range. Best not to pre-empt this though, as these decisions often get pushed. Confirmations are key to mitigate risk,” Edwards cautions.<\/p>\n

Diving deeper into the technicals, the report highlighted two key observations:<\/p>\n

Since 2010, Bitcoin\u2019s historic volatility has only been lower than today in 2016. Suggesting a big price move is on the horizon when volatility expansion (reversion to the mean) occurs. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s $30K breakdown has (so far) failed to follow through… A close back into the Wyckoff structure at $30K would signify a failed breakdown and therefore be a very positive technical signal.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

BTC On-Chain Indicators Are Neutral<\/h2>\n

Capriole’s Bitcoin Macro Index, a comprehensive tool that amalgamates over 40 Bitcoin on-chain, macro market, and equities metrics into a machine learning model, currently scores at -0.36, indicating “Contraction”. This suggests that while the short-term outlook remains neutral, the long-term perspective appears bullish. Remarkably, this strategy takes long-only positions in Bitcoin. In slowdowns and contractions, cash is held.<\/p>\n

“The Macro Index today remains in a period of relative value (below zero), suggesting decent long-term value for multi-year horizon investors,” the report elucidated.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Supported By Thin $40 Million Bid Pool, But For How Long?<\/a><\/div>\n

A noteworthy addition to Capriole’s analysis toolkit is the “Bitcoin Production Cost” model, which evaluates the cost of mining a Bitcoin based on global average electrical consumption. Currently, this model indicates that Bitcoin is trading within a long-term value region, with the report speculating, “I would be surprised if this holds into 2024.”<\/p>\n

In conclusion, the analysis from Capriole paints a picture of potential long-term value amidst the current bearish technicals. Drawing parallels with 2016, the report suggests that Bitcoin’s current low volatility phase could be a precursor to a bullish breakout.<\/p>\n

“All else equal, Bitcoin is like a beach ball submerged underwater. Nonetheless, we remain in a technical breakdown. We don\u2019t know how long that hand will hold the ball underwater for. Prudent risk-management will await a technical confirmation before acting.”<\/p>\n

With the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s expansion and contraction cycles, only time will tell if history will indeed repeat itself; especially with the backdrop of a totally different macro environment. At press time, the BTC price remained stagnant, trading at $29,445.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price remains stagnant, 4-hour chart | Source BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Andr\u00e9 Fran\u00e7ois McKenzie \/ Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In today\u2019s micro update from Capriole, founder Charles Edwards presented a compelling analysis that draws parallels between the current low volatility of Bitcoin and its historical behavior in 2016. With Bitcoin’s price stagnating around the $29,000 mark, experts are closely watching for signs of a potential bullish breakout. “Bitcoin\u2019s price remains at $29K, in a sideways consolidation that has created one of the absolute lowest volatility periods in Bitcoin\u2019s 14 year history,” Edwards states. This prolonged period of low volatility is reminiscent of 2016, suggesting that a significant price movement could be imminent. Bitcoin Breakout Imminent? While the technicals indicate a bearish breakdown from the $30,000 mark, the absence of a downward momentum offers a glimmer of hope for bullish investors. “If price was going to collapse, we would usually have seen that follow through by now,” the report notes. However, for a more concrete bullish sentiment, “a close back above $30K on the daily timeframe is required at the minimum as a technical confirmation of a failed breakdown.” Related Reading: Bernstein Predicts Spot ETFs Could Claim 10% Of Bitcoin\u2019s Market If Greenlit On the fundamental front, Bitcoin’s on-chain data continues to contract, albeit at a decelerating rate. The imminent decisions on several Bitcoin ETF approvals could potentially disrupt the current low volatility phase. “An approval could cause a break from the current low volatility range. Best not to pre-empt this though, as these decisions often get pushed. Confirmations are key to mitigate risk,” Edwards cautions. Diving deeper into the technicals, the report highlighted two key observations: Since 2010, Bitcoin\u2019s historic volatility has only been lower than today in 2016. Suggesting a big price move is on the horizon when volatility expansion (reversion to the mean) occurs. Bitcoin\u2019s $30K breakdown has (so far) failed to follow through… A close back into the Wyckoff structure at $30K would signify a failed breakdown and therefore be a very positive technical signal. BTC On-Chain Indicators Are Neutral Capriole’s Bitcoin Macro Index, a comprehensive tool that amalgamates over 40 Bitcoin on-chain, macro market, and equities metrics into a machine learning model, currently scores at -0.36, indicating “Contraction”. This suggests that while the short-term outlook remains neutral, the long-term perspective appears bullish. Remarkably, this strategy takes long-only positions in Bitcoin. In slowdowns and contractions, cash is held. “The Macro Index today remains in a period of relative value (below zero), suggesting decent long-term value for multi-year horizon investors,” the report elucidated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Supported By Thin $40 Million Bid Pool, But For How Long? A noteworthy addition to Capriole’s analysis toolkit is the “Bitcoin Production Cost” model, which evaluates the cost of mining a Bitcoin based on global average electrical consumption. Currently, this model indicates that Bitcoin is trading within a long-term value region, with the report speculating, “I would be surprised if this holds into 2024.” In conclusion, the analysis from Capriole paints a picture of potential long-term value amidst the current bearish technicals. Drawing parallels with 2016, the report suggests that Bitcoin’s current low volatility phase could be a precursor to a bullish breakout. “All else equal, Bitcoin is like a beach ball submerged underwater. Nonetheless, we remain in a technical breakdown. We don\u2019t know how long that hand will hold the ball underwater for. Prudent risk-management will await a technical confirmation before acting.” With the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s expansion and contraction cycles, only time will tell if history will indeed repeat itself; especially with the backdrop of a totally different macro environment. At press time, the BTC price remained stagnant, trading at $29,445. Featured image from Andr\u00e9 Fran\u00e7ois McKenzie \/ Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":547315,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,1144,89124,60667],"class_list":["post-547314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-capriole-investments","tag-charles-edwards"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Volatility Mirrors 2016: Bullish Breakout On The Horizon?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Charles Edwards draws parallels between the current low volatility of Bitcoin and its historical behavior in 2016.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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Through his extensive work with uniquehot.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Low Bitcoin Volatility Mirrors 2016: A Bullish Breakout On The Horizon?","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/low-bitcoin-volatility-mirrors-2016-bullish-breakout\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/low-bitcoin-volatility-mirrors-2016-bullish-breakout\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/andre-francois-mckenzie-uw3VwkDHiMI-unsplash.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/andre-francois-mckenzie-uw3VwkDHiMI-unsplash.jpg?fit=1920%2C1282"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jake Simmons"}],"creator":["Jake Simmons"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","btc","btcusd","capriole investments","charles edwards"],"dateCreated":"2023-08-15T11:50:32Z","datePublished":"2023-08-15T11:50:32Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T14:39:32Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Low Bitcoin Volatility Mirrors 2016: A Bullish Breakout On The Horizon?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/low-bitcoin-volatility-mirrors-2016-bullish-breakout\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/low-bitcoin-volatility-mirrors-2016-bullish-breakout\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/andre-francois-mckenzie-uw3VwkDHiMI-unsplash.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/andre-francois-mckenzie-uw3VwkDHiMI-unsplash.jpg?fit=1920%2C1282\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jake Simmons\"}],\"creator\":[\"Jake Simmons\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"capriole investments\",\"charles edwards\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-08-15T11:50:32Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-15T11:50:32Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T14:39:32Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/andre-francois-mckenzie-uw3VwkDHiMI-unsplash.jpg?fit=1920%2C1282","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=547314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547314\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/547315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=547314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=547314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=547314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}