{"id":552478,"date":"2023-09-22T11:30:07","date_gmt":"2023-09-22T11:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=552478"},"modified":"2023-09-22T10:55:54","modified_gmt":"2023-09-22T10:55:54","slug":"bitcoin-crypto-turbulence-10-year-treasury-yield","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-crypto-turbulence-10-year-treasury-yield\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin And Crypto Face Turbulence As 10-Year US Treasury Yield Hits 15-Year High"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an environment of soaring interest rates and economic unpredictability, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market face increased headwinds. The shift in the financial landscape was recently underscored by the Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which hit a 16-year high this Thursday.<\/p>\n

Longest Yield Curve Inversion Ever<\/h2>\n

Historically, an inverted yield curve, where short-term yields are higher than long-term ones, has been a harbinger of economic downturns. Notably, the 10-Year minus the 3-Month Treasury Yield curve has been inverted for a record 217 trading days. Past data indicates that the longer the delay between the inversion and the start of a recession, the more severe the recession is likely to be.<\/p>\n

Joe Consorti, Market Analyst at The Bitcoin Layer, underscored this concern, remarking<\/a> on Twitter: “The yield curve is re-steepening at breakneck speed. Up by 10 bps or more today across the curve. Do you know what happens when the yield curve steepens, every single time? Hint: not economic expansion.”<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Ex-Alameda Employee Claims Firm Triggered 87% Bitcoin Price Plummet In 2021<\/a><\/div>\n

The Fed’s recent signals and policy stance have taken the financial world by storm. Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, noted<\/a>, “The 10-Year Treasury Yield moved up to 4.49% today, highest since October 2007. The Real 10-Year Yield (adjusted for expected inflation) of 2.11% is now at the highest level since March 2009.” Bilello also pointed out the significant reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet, which is currently “over 10% below its April 2022 peak.”<\/p>\n

The two largest drawdowns over the last 20 years were between December 2008 and February 2009 with 18.2% (balance sheet hit a new high in Jan 2010), and from January 2015 to August 2019 with -16.7% (balance sheet hit a new high in March 2020).<\/p>\n

The rise in the 10-Year Treasury Yield was reiterated<\/a> by the analysts from “The Kobeissi Letter,” who stated: “BREAKING: 10-Year Note Yield officially hits our 4.50% target… The 10-Year Note Yield is up an incredible 20 basis points in less than 24 hours… With supply side inflation out of control and oil prices back to $90+, the Fed has no choice. Higher for longer is back.”<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve’s Stand<\/h2>\n

During Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the US central bank and chairman Jerome Powell have made clear its intentions, signaling the potential for an additional rate hike this year and forecasting fewer cuts next year.\u00a0It now forecasts half a percentage point of rate cuts in 2024. Prior, the dot plot showed cut rates by a full percentage point next year.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Why Touching This Bitcoin Level Could Hold The Key For A Rally<\/a><\/div>\n

This “higher for longer” strategy seems to diverge from the market’s prior expectations, despite three months of seemingly positive inflation data. Moreover, Powell conveyed confidence in the US. economy, emphasizing the need to ensure interest rates are adjusted correctly to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target.<\/p>\n

However, the market remains uncertain, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating only a 32% chance of another rate hike in November and a 45% likelihood by December.<\/p>\n

Implications For Bitcoin And Crypto<\/h2>\n

Risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, have historically been sensitive to increases in the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted<\/a> the challenges for the Bitcoin and crypto sector:<\/p>\n

The Fed wants more unemployment. The job market is still too strong. They’ve raised the expected 2024 rates as a result and the 10YR has broken out to new decade highs. As long as the 10YR is breaking upwards like this, risk assets are going to see further headwinds.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Historically, rising yields are indicative of an expectation of higher interest rates, which increase the cost of borrowing. This scenario often leads to a reduction in speculative investments, with investors favoring more stable, yield-bearing assets over riskier options such as Bitcoin and crypto.<\/p>\n

Another problem for the market is the “higher for longer” approach and the massive reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Risk assets like Bitcoin are traditionally a “sponge” for high liquidity, but when this dries up in the financial market, they usually suffer the most.<\/p>\n

In addition, concerns about a possible recession will continue to rise due to the inverted yield curve. Remarkably, Bitcoin and crypto have never traded in a recession, the reaction is uncertain.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $26,655.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In an environment of soaring interest rates and economic unpredictability, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market face increased headwinds. The shift in the financial landscape was recently underscored by the Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which hit a 16-year high this Thursday. Longest Yield Curve Inversion Ever Historically, an inverted yield curve, where short-term yields are higher than long-term ones, has been a harbinger of economic downturns. Notably, the 10-Year minus the 3-Month Treasury Yield curve has been inverted for a record 217 trading days. Past data indicates that the longer the delay between the inversion and the start of a recession, the more severe the recession is likely to be. Joe Consorti, Market Analyst at The Bitcoin Layer, underscored this concern, remarking on Twitter: “The yield curve is re-steepening at breakneck speed. Up by 10 bps or more today across the curve. Do you know what happens when the yield curve steepens, every single time? Hint: not economic expansion.” Related Reading: Ex-Alameda Employee Claims Firm Triggered 87% Bitcoin Price Plummet In 2021 The Fed’s recent signals and policy stance have taken the financial world by storm. Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, noted, “The 10-Year Treasury Yield moved up to 4.49% today, highest since October 2007. The Real 10-Year Yield (adjusted for expected inflation) of 2.11% is now at the highest level since March 2009.” Bilello also pointed out the significant reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet, which is currently “over 10% below its April 2022 peak.” The two largest drawdowns over the last 20 years were between December 2008 and February 2009 with 18.2% (balance sheet hit a new high in Jan 2010), and from January 2015 to August 2019 with -16.7% (balance sheet hit a new high in March 2020). The rise in the 10-Year Treasury Yield was reiterated by the analysts from “The Kobeissi Letter,” who stated: “BREAKING: 10-Year Note Yield officially hits our 4.50% target… The 10-Year Note Yield is up an incredible 20 basis points in less than 24 hours… With supply side inflation out of control and oil prices back to $90+, the Fed has no choice. Higher for longer is back.” The Federal Reserve’s Stand During Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the US central bank and chairman Jerome Powell have made clear its intentions, signaling the potential for an additional rate hike this year and forecasting fewer cuts next year.\u00a0It now forecasts half a percentage point of rate cuts in 2024. Prior, the dot plot showed cut rates by a full percentage point next year. Related Reading: Why Touching This Bitcoin Level Could Hold The Key For A Rally This “higher for longer” strategy seems to diverge from the market’s prior expectations, despite three months of seemingly positive inflation data. Moreover, Powell conveyed confidence in the US. economy, emphasizing the need to ensure interest rates are adjusted correctly to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target. However, the market remains uncertain, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating only a 32% chance of another rate hike in November and a 45% likelihood by December. Implications For Bitcoin And Crypto Risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, have historically been sensitive to increases in the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted the challenges for the Bitcoin and crypto sector: The Fed wants more unemployment. The job market is still too strong. They’ve raised the expected 2024 rates as a result and the 10YR has broken out to new decade highs. As long as the 10YR is breaking upwards like this, risk assets are going to see further headwinds. Historically, rising yields are indicative of an expectation of higher interest rates, which increase the cost of borrowing. This scenario often leads to a reduction in speculative investments, with investors favoring more stable, yield-bearing assets over riskier options such as Bitcoin and crypto. Another problem for the market is the “higher for longer” approach and the massive reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Risk assets like Bitcoin are traditionally a “sponge” for high liquidity, but when this dries up in the financial market, they usually suffer the most. In addition, concerns about a possible recession will continue to rise due to the inverted yield curve. Remarkably, Bitcoin and crypto have never traded in a recession, the reaction is uncertain. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $26,655. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":552480,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[89463,142,428,1119,1144,6664,2007,72562],"class_list":["post-552478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-altcoins","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-crypto","tag-fed","tag-macro"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Faces Turbulence As 10YR Treasury Yield At 15-Year High<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In an environment of soaring interest rates and economic unpredictability, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market face increased headwinds.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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Through his extensive work with uniquehot.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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