{"id":555889,"date":"2023-10-18T15:00:37","date_gmt":"2023-10-18T15:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=555889"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:16:36","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:16:36","slug":"rare-bullish-bitcoin-crossover-form-quant-predicts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/rare-bullish-bitcoin-crossover-form-quant-predicts\/","title":{"rendered":"This Rare Bullish Bitcoin Crossover Could Soon Form, Quant Predicts When"},"content":{"rendered":"

A rare bullish crossover between two on-chain metrics could soon be forming for Bitcoin. Here’s when this analyst believes the cross would happen.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Realized Prices Of Two UTXO Age Bands Are Moving Towards A Cross<\/h2>\n

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post<\/a>, a bullish crossover is expected to happen soon for BTC. The indicator of interest here is the “realized price<\/a>,” which basically keeps track of the price at which the average investor in the Bitcoin market acquired their coins.<\/p>\n

The indicator calculates this value by going through the on-chain history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last transacted at. The metric assumes this price to be its buying price and so, after taking the mean of this value for all tokens on the network, the average cost basis of all coins is obtained.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Cap Could Rise By $1 Trillion After Spot ETFs Launch: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/div>\n

When the cryptocurrency’s price is under this metric, it means that the average holder in the sector is in a state of loss. On the other hand, the price being above the indicator implies the overall market is enjoying net profits.<\/p>\n

The realized price of the entire user base isn’t of relevance in the context of the current discussion, but two specific UTXO<\/a> age bands which are 6 months to 12 months and 12 months to 18 months. What these age bands signify is that the coins (or more accurately, UTXOs) belonging to them were last moved inside their range.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for these two UTXO age bands over the past few years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the the two metrics have been approaching each other in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
As displayed in the above graph, the realized price of the UTXOs sitting dormant between 12 and 18 months ago has been heading down for a while now. The 6-month to 12 months age band had been showing a similar trajectory earlier in the year, but a while back, the metric plateaued and has since then turned itself around.<\/p>\n
The reason the average cost basis of investors belonging to this age band has reversed its trajectory is that the 6 months cutoff for the group now lies in April, which means that those who bought during the rally in the starting months of the year would now be counted under this cohort.<\/p>\n
Earlier in the year, the bear market buyers were a part of the group, so the average naturally headed down. The 12-month to 18-month-old group, on the other hand, still constitutes these bear market buyers, hence why its realized price is still decreasing.<\/p>\n
If these two metrics continue in their current trajectories, they will go through a crossover<\/a>. As the quant has highlighted in the chart, such a crossover where the 6 months to 12 months band has broken above the 12 months to 18 months cohort, has historically proven to be bullish for the asset.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Analyst Points Out Weird Bitcoin Activity On Bybit & Deribit Before Flash Surge<\/a><\/div>\n
In total, there have only been four such crossovers in the cryptocurrency’s entire history, so if this crossover goes on to form, it would only be the fifth ever. The analyst believes that November 28, 2023, is when this bullish crossover could be expected to form for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin had made a push toward the $29,000 level yesterday, but it appears the surge has already calmed down as the coin has retraced towards $28,400.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC appears to have overall moved sideways in the last two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A rare bullish crossover between two on-chain metrics could soon be forming for Bitcoin. Here’s when this analyst believes the cross would happen. Bitcoin Realized Prices Of Two UTXO Age Bands Are Moving Towards A Cross As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, a bullish crossover is expected to happen soon for BTC. The indicator of interest here is the “realized price,” which basically keeps track of the price at which the average investor in the Bitcoin market acquired their coins. The indicator calculates this value by going through the on-chain history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last transacted at. The metric assumes this price to be its buying price and so, after taking the mean of this value for all tokens on the network, the average cost basis of all coins is obtained. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Cap Could Rise By $1 Trillion After Spot ETFs Launch: CryptoQuant When the cryptocurrency’s price is under this metric, it means that the average holder in the sector is in a state of loss. On the other hand, the price being above the indicator implies the overall market is enjoying net profits. The realized price of the entire user base isn’t of relevance in the context of the current discussion, but two specific UTXO age bands which are 6 months to 12 months and 12 months to 18 months. What these age bands signify is that the coins (or more accurately, UTXOs) belonging to them were last moved inside their range. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for these two UTXO age bands over the past few years: Looks like the the two metrics have been approaching each other in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the realized price of the UTXOs sitting dormant between 12 and 18 months ago has been heading down for a while now. The 6-month to 12 months age band had been showing a similar trajectory earlier in the year, but a while back, the metric plateaued and has since then turned itself around. The reason the average cost basis of investors belonging to this age band has reversed its trajectory is that the 6 months cutoff for the group now lies in April, which means that those who bought during the rally in the starting months of the year would now be counted under this cohort. Earlier in the year, the bear market buyers were a part of the group, so the average naturally headed down. The 12-month to 18-month-old group, on the other hand, still constitutes these bear market buyers, hence why its realized price is still decreasing. If these two metrics continue in their current trajectories, they will go through a crossover. As the quant has highlighted in the chart, such a crossover where the 6 months to 12 months band has broken above the 12 months to 18 months cohort, has historically proven to be bullish for the asset. Related Reading: Analyst Points Out Weird Bitcoin Activity On Bybit & Deribit Before Flash Surge In total, there have only been four such crossovers in the cryptocurrency’s entire history, so if this crossover goes on to form, it would only be the fifth ever. The analyst believes that November 28, 2023, is when this bullish crossover could be expected to form for Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin had made a push toward the $29,000 level yesterday, but it appears the surge has already calmed down as the coin has retraced towards $28,400. BTC appears to have overall moved sideways in the last two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":555920,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,85844,86843,86297,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-555889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bullish-crossover","tag-bitcoin-crossover","tag-bitcoin-realized-price","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThis Rare Bullish Bitcoin Crossover Could Soon Form, Quant Predicts When<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A bullish crossover between two on-chain metrics could soon be forming for Bitcoin. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"This Rare Bullish Bitcoin Crossover Could Soon Form, Quant Predicts When","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/rare-bullish-bitcoin-crossover-form-quant-predicts\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/rare-bullish-bitcoin-crossover-form-quant-predicts\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/shutterstock_1425714068-1.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/shutterstock_1425714068-1.jpg?fit=4000%2C2671"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin bullish crossover","bitcoin crossover","bitcoin realized price","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-10-18T15:00:37Z","datePublished":"2023-10-18T15:00:37Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:16:36Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"This Rare Bullish Bitcoin Crossover Could Soon Form, Quant Predicts When\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/rare-bullish-bitcoin-crossover-form-quant-predicts\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/news\\\/rare-bullish-bitcoin-crossover-form-quant-predicts\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/10\\\/shutterstock_1425714068-1.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/10\\\/shutterstock_1425714068-1.jpg?fit=4000%2C2671\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin bullish crossover\",\"bitcoin crossover\",\"bitcoin realized price\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-10-18T15:00:37Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-18T15:00:37Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:16:36Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/shutterstock_1425714068-1.jpg?fit=4000%2C2671","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=555889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555889\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/555920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=555889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=555889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}