{"id":568428,"date":"2024-01-07T08:42:40","date_gmt":"2024-01-07T08:42:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=568428"},"modified":"2024-06-11T06:54:16","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T06:54:16","slug":"revised-forecast-bloomberg-analyst-cuts-probability-of-bitcoin-spot-etf-rejection-to-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/revised-forecast-bloomberg-analyst-cuts-probability-of-bitcoin-spot-etf-rejection-to-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability Of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection To 5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as crypto enthusiasts worldwide anticipate a wide-scale approval of various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-spot-etf-blackrock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin Spot ETF: VanEck\u2019s Head Of Research Says BlackRock Has $2 Billion In Investments Lined Up<\/a><\/div>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Why The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Appears Nearly Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JSeyff\/status\/90559398?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">predicted<\/a> that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC\u2019s response on their application.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">However, in a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/EricBalchunas\/status\/25229673?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">X post<\/a> on January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this greenlight to an astounding 95% after declaring that there was only a 5% probability the SEC would reject the ARK\/21 ETF bid in the coming days.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EricBalchunas\/status\/25229673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">January 6, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK\/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK\/21 shares spontaneously withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he claimed to be highly unlikely.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, resulting in a drawn-out court battle between the US regulator and ARK\/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would rather avoid, especially following its recent loud legal loss against Grayscale investment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The final event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the clearance of the ARK\/21 Shares ETF bid is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, another scenario that appears remotely possible.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/etf-or-halving-analyst-doubles-down-on-bullish-year-for-bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">ETF Or Halving: Analyst Doubles Down On Bullish Year For Bitcoin<\/a><\/div>\n<h2>The D-Day Approaches<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The importance of ARK\/21 Shares&#8217; joint bid to the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around its final deadline date for an SEC response, which is the earliest of the bunch. Now, it is believed that the SEC will rather approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once regardless of their respective final deadline date in a similar fashion as it did with Ether-futures ETFs in August.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This belief is backed by the <a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinist.com\/sec-and-fidelity-meet-for-talks-on-spot-bitcoin-etf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">discussions<\/a> between the US regulator and various applicants in the last few weeks, leading to amendments in respective proposals, which indicates the preparation of an incoming approval.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At the time of writing, the set date of expectation remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts highly enthusiastic about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin\u2019s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050, having gained by 4.50% in the last week.<\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/hsjNBcrO\/\" width=\"1479\" height=\"893\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">BTC trading at $44,038.02 on the daily chart | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/xg17RJqK\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com<\/a><\/pre>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as crypto enthusiasts worldwide anticipate a wide-scale approval of various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETF: VanEck\u2019s Head Of Research Says BlackRock Has $2 Billion In Investments Lined Up Why The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Appears Nearly Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC\u2019s response on their application. However, in a recent X post on January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this greenlight to an astounding 95% after declaring that there was only a 5% probability the SEC would reject the ARK\/21 ETF bid in the coming days.\u00a0 This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK\/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK\/21 shares spontaneously withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he claimed to be highly unlikely.\u00a0 Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, resulting in a drawn-out court battle between the US regulator and ARK\/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would rather avoid, especially following its recent loud legal loss against Grayscale investment. The final event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the clearance of the ARK\/21 Shares ETF bid is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, another scenario that appears remotely possible.\u00a0\u00a0 Related Reading: ETF Or Halving: Analyst Doubles Down On Bullish Year For Bitcoin The D-Day Approaches The importance of ARK\/21 Shares&#8217; joint bid to the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around its final deadline date for an SEC response, which is the earliest of the bunch. Now, it is believed that the SEC will rather approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once regardless of their respective final deadline date in a similar fashion as it did with Ether-futures ETFs in August.\u00a0 This belief is backed by the discussions between the US regulator and various applicants in the last few weeks, leading to amendments in respective proposals, which indicates the preparation of an incoming approval. At the time of writing, the set date of expectation remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts highly enthusiastic about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin\u2019s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050, having gained by 4.50% in the last week. BTC trading at $44,038.02 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":581,"featured_media":568430,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[89502,86326,83971,3799],"class_list":["post-568428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-ark-21shares","tag-bitcoin-spot-etf","tag-bloomberg-analyst","tag-sec"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection to 5%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas lowers the possibility of the SEC denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%, here&#039;s why\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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