{"id":569586,"date":"2024-01-15T16:00:38","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T16:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=569586"},"modified":"2024-06-11T09:49:12","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T09:49:12","slug":"low-bitcoin-cryptoquant-head-reveals-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/low-bitcoin-cryptoquant-head-reveals-target\/","title":{"rendered":"How Low Can Bitcoin Go? CryptoQuant Head Reveals Target"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the midst of Bitcoin’s recent price struggle, CryptoQuant head of research has revealed the level Bitcoin can potentially sink down to.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Might Go Down To As Low As Realized Price Of 1 To 3 Months Old Hands<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed how low the BTC price can go following the latest correction. “To evaluate this I like to look at the realized price of 1 to 3 month-old holders,” explains Moreno.<\/p>\n

The “realized price<\/a>” refers to an indicator that basically tells us about the average price at which investors in the Bitcoin market acquired their coins. This metric uses on-chain data to find the cost basis of holders, by assuming that the last transfer of any coin in circulation was when the coin changed hands.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Erases $49,000 ETF Rally As Coinbase Users Take To Selling<\/a><\/div>\n

When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is above the realized price, it means that the investors as a whole are carrying some unrealized gains currently. On the other hand, the price being lower than the metric suggests the overall market is underwater.<\/p>\n

Naturally, when the realized price and spot price are exactly equal, the average investor in the sector could be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment.<\/p>\n

In the context of the current topic, Moreno hasn’t applied the realized price to the entire user base but rather to just a segment of the investors: the 1-to 3-month-old holders.<\/p>\n

The below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for this particular holder group over the last year:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The trend in the realized price of this short-term holder segment | Source: jjcmoreno on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
The 1 to 3 months old investors make up a part of the wider “short-term holder” (STH) cohort. The STHs are defined as investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days.<\/p>\n
Thus, the holders who bought between 1 and 3 months ago would be on the younger side of this group. Generally, the STHs behave in a fickle manner, reacting to any significant changes in the market, like a rally or crash.<\/p>\n
The more mature a holder’s coins become, the less likely the investor turns to show any such reaction. Since the 1 to 3-month-old hands, although not the youngest, are still young STHs, they are likely to react to price changes.<\/p>\n
According to Moreno, the realized price of these STHs has “represented a support level historically and during 2023.” The reason behind the level being supported is likely the fact that these investors would closely watch their average cost basis and move to buy more when the price dips around there if the general mood around the market is bullish.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Near Top Yet? What Glassnode\u2019s Price Multiplier Model Says<\/a><\/div>\n
In times when the prevailing Bitcoin trend is bearish, the level can act as resistance instead, as these STHs would be willing to exit the market at their break-even point.<\/p>\n
At present, the realized price of the 1 to 3-month-old STHs is $36,700. Given the historical pattern, it’s possible Bitcoin might dip to around there before finding support, if the current correction<\/a> continues for long.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
Since the asset’s price plunged under the $45,000 level a few days back, the Bitcoin price has been trading sideways around the $42,500 level.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like the price of the coin has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In the midst of Bitcoin’s recent price struggle, CryptoQuant head of research has revealed the level Bitcoin can potentially sink down to. Bitcoin Might Go Down To As Low As Realized Price Of 1 To 3 Months Old Hands In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed how low the BTC price can go following the latest correction. “To evaluate this I like to look at the realized price of 1 to 3 month-old holders,” explains Moreno. The “realized price” refers to an indicator that basically tells us about the average price at which investors in the Bitcoin market acquired their coins. This metric uses on-chain data to find the cost basis of holders, by assuming that the last transfer of any coin in circulation was when the coin changed hands. Related Reading: Bitcoin Erases $49,000 ETF Rally As Coinbase Users Take To Selling When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is above the realized price, it means that the investors as a whole are carrying some unrealized gains currently. On the other hand, the price being lower than the metric suggests the overall market is underwater. Naturally, when the realized price and spot price are exactly equal, the average investor in the sector could be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment. In the context of the current topic, Moreno hasn’t applied the realized price to the entire user base but rather to just a segment of the investors: the 1-to 3-month-old holders. The below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for this particular holder group over the last year: The trend in the realized price of this short-term holder segment | Source: jjcmoreno on X The 1 to 3 months old investors make up a part of the wider “short-term holder” (STH) cohort. The STHs are defined as investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days. Thus, the holders who bought between 1 and 3 months ago would be on the younger side of this group. Generally, the STHs behave in a fickle manner, reacting to any significant changes in the market, like a rally or crash. The more mature a holder’s coins become, the less likely the investor turns to show any such reaction. Since the 1 to 3-month-old hands, although not the youngest, are still young STHs, they are likely to react to price changes. According to Moreno, the realized price of these STHs has “represented a support level historically and during 2023.” The reason behind the level being supported is likely the fact that these investors would closely watch their average cost basis and move to buy more when the price dips around there if the general mood around the market is bullish. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Near Top Yet? What Glassnode\u2019s Price Multiplier Model Says In times when the prevailing Bitcoin trend is bearish, the level can act as resistance instead, as these STHs would be willing to exit the market at their break-even point. At present, the realized price of the 1 to 3-month-old STHs is $36,700. Given the historical pattern, it’s possible Bitcoin might dip to around there before finding support, if the current correction continues for long. BTC Price Since the asset’s price plunged under the $45,000 level a few days back, the Bitcoin price has been trading sideways around the $42,500 level. Looks like the price of the coin has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":569635,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,461,27251,91181,91180,1119,1144,83531],"class_list":["post-569586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bearish","tag-bitcoin-bottom","tag-bitcoin-low","tag-bitcoin-target","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-cryptoquant"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow Low Can Bitcoin Go? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"How Low Can Bitcoin Go? 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