{"id":598000,"date":"2024-03-15T19:00:18","date_gmt":"2024-03-15T19:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=598000"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:02:42","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:02:42","slug":"bitcoin-to-53200-why-history-says-its-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin-to-53200-why-history-says-its-possible\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin To $53,200? Why History Says It’s Possible"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin drops below $68,000, history suggests this correction is rather tame for bull markets, as plunges to this deep on-chain level have been the norm.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Currently Around $53,200<\/h2>\n

As pointed out by CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn in a post<\/a> on X, BTC still has a decent margin over the realized price of the short-term holders.<\/p>\n

The “realized price<\/a>” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average price at which the Bitcoin investors acquired their coins. The indicator calculates this value by going through the transaction history of each coin and assuming that the last transfer of it was the last time it was purchased (that is, the price at the time is its current cost basis).<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today? 3 Key Reasons<\/a><\/div>\n

When the spot value of the cryptocurrency dips below the realized price, it means that the average investor is now in a state of loss. On the other hand, a break above implies the market as a whole has entered into net profits.<\/p>\n

In the context of the current discussion, the realized price for only a particular segment of the investors is of interest: the “short-term holders<\/a>” (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for this cohort:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the value of the metric has been trending up recently | Source: @JA_Maartun on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH realized price has shot up recently as the price of the asset has gone up. This makes sense, as this group includes the most recent buyers, who would continuously be buying at higher prices in an uptrend, thus raising their average cost basis.<\/p>\n
At present, this cohort’s realized price is about $53,200. During the past day, BTC has seen a sharp drop that has taken its price below the $68,000 mark, but clearly, the STHs would still be in high profits even after this drawdown.<\/p>\n
“In previous bull markets, the average cost basis of short-term holders was fully reset multiple times,” explains Maartunn. This trend is most prominent in the data for the 2017 bull run when the price retested this level several times.<\/p>\n
An interesting pattern that has been held is that these retests of the level during bull trends have generally resulted in the cryptocurrency finding support and turning itself back around.<\/p>\n
The explanation for this trend may lie in the fickle nature of the STHs. The cost basis is an important level for these investors, and when a retest of it happens, they panic and show some reaction.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Brace For Impact: MicroStrategy Is Planning Another $500 Million Bitcoin Purchase<\/a><\/div>\n
During uptrends, these holders are more likely to buy more when a retest of their cost basis occurs since they may think that the same price levels that were profitable earlier will be so again in the near future.<\/p>\n
Naturally, it’s not a certainty that Bitcoin would also end up retesting this level in this bull market. Still, a correction might reach close to it if the historical precedent is anything to go by.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
Following its 7% drop in the past day, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
The price of the coin has registered a sharp drop over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As Bitcoin drops below $68,000, history suggests this correction is rather tame for bull markets, as plunges to this deep on-chain level have been the norm. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Currently Around $53,200 As pointed out by CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn in a post on X, BTC still has a decent margin over the realized price of the short-term holders. The “realized price” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average price at which the Bitcoin investors acquired their coins. The indicator calculates this value by going through the transaction history of each coin and assuming that the last transfer of it was the last time it was purchased (that is, the price at the time is its current cost basis). Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today? 3 Key Reasons When the spot value of the cryptocurrency dips below the realized price, it means that the average investor is now in a state of loss. On the other hand, a break above implies the market as a whole has entered into net profits. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price for only a particular segment of the investors is of interest: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for this cohort: Looks like the value of the metric has been trending up recently | Source: @JA_Maartun on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH realized price has shot up recently as the price of the asset has gone up. This makes sense, as this group includes the most recent buyers, who would continuously be buying at higher prices in an uptrend, thus raising their average cost basis. At present, this cohort’s realized price is about $53,200. During the past day, BTC has seen a sharp drop that has taken its price below the $68,000 mark, but clearly, the STHs would still be in high profits even after this drawdown. “In previous bull markets, the average cost basis of short-term holders was fully reset multiple times,” explains Maartunn. This trend is most prominent in the data for the 2017 bull run when the price retested this level several times. An interesting pattern that has been held is that these retests of the level during bull trends have generally resulted in the cryptocurrency finding support and turning itself back around. The explanation for this trend may lie in the fickle nature of the STHs. The cost basis is an important level for these investors, and when a retest of it happens, they panic and show some reaction. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: MicroStrategy Is Planning Another $500 Million Bitcoin Purchase During uptrends, these holders are more likely to buy more when a retest of their cost basis occurs since they may think that the same price levels that were profitable earlier will be so again in the near future. Naturally, it’s not a certainty that Bitcoin would also end up retesting this level in this bull market. Still, a correction might reach close to it if the historical precedent is anything to go by. BTC Price Following its 7% drop in the past day, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700. The price of the coin has registered a sharp drop over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":598038,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,506,87457,86297,88343,84852,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-598000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-crash","tag-bitcoin-plunge","tag-bitcoin-realized-price","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holder-cost-basis","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin To $53,200? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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