{"id":605556,"date":"2024-04-29T12:30:30","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T12:30:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=605556"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:01:02","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:01:02","slug":"legendary-trader-predicts-bitcoin-bull-run-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/legendary-trader-predicts-bitcoin-bull-run-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Legendary Trader Predicts When Bitcoin&#8217;s Bull Run Will End"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.peterlbrandt.com\/does-history-make-a-case-that-bitcoin-has-topped\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">analysis<\/a>, veteran trader Peter Brandt delved into the price behavior of Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might have reached its peak for the current cycle. According to Brandt, Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of &#8220;Exponential Decay,&#8221; indicating a weakening in the momentum of its bull market cycles over the years.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? It\u2019s called Exponential Decay \u2014 and it describes Bitcoin,&#8221; Brandt wrote. He further explained, &#8220;The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years&#8230; I don\u2019t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin \u2014 Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Brandt provided a historical breakdown of Bitcoin&#8217;s bull cycles, noting a consistent decrease in the <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/company\/which-crypto-will-skyrocket-in-may-bull-run-top-3-picks-for-investors\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">magnitude of gains<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The bull cycle from December 21, 2009, to June 6, 2011, demonstrated a staggering 3,191X advance.<\/li>\n<li>The subsequent cycle from November 14, 2011, to November 25, 2013, showed a reduced yet impressive 572X advance.<\/li>\n<li>The period from August 17, 2015, to December 18, 2017, recorded a further diminished 122X advance.<\/li>\n<li>More recently, the cycle from December 10, 2018, to November 8, 2021, saw just a 22X advance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Peak With A Probability Of 25%<\/h2>\n<p>Drawing on these historical patterns, Brandt extrapolated that the <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/crypto-bull-run-return-next-week-arthur-hayes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">current cycle,<\/a> which began on November 21, 2022, would likely see an approximate 4.5X gain from its low of $15,473, predicting a potential high near $72,723. Notably, this peak has already been nearly met with a price of $73,835 recorded on March 14, 2024. Brandt underscores this observation with a caution, &#8220;The magnitude of each bull cycle has been roughly 20% of its predecessor, indicating significant energy loss.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-whale-activity-declining-why-a-turnaround-is-important\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin Whale Activity Declining \u2013 Why A Turnaround Is Important<\/a><\/div>\n<p>In his analysis, Brandt does not shy away from addressing the implications of <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/when-is-the-next-btc-halving-date-bitcoin-halving-guide\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin\u2019s halving events<\/a>, which have historically been catalysts for substantial price increases. Despite this, he emphasizes the undeniable presence of the decay pattern: &#8220;But for now, we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In a communication on X, Brandt responded to a counter analysis by fellow analyst @Giovann35084111, who argued that Bitcoin follows a power law over time, suggesting the potential for ongoing growth despite the observed decay. Brandt acknowledged the validity. \u201cQuite a thorough analysis,\u201d Brand commented.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Quite a thorough analysis <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hiSogUtEkt\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/t.co\/hiSogUtEkt<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/26254937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">April 29, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/bitcoin-news\/timing-the-breakout-when-will-bitcoin-escape-the-post-halving-consolidation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Timing The Breakout: When Will Bitcoin Escape The Post-Halving Consolidation?<\/a><\/div>\n<p>@Giovann35084111&#8217;s analysis extends beyond cyclical trends by illustrating how deviations from the power law at specific intervals, particularly around halving events, provide a structured prediction model. This approach projects systematic patterns in Bitcoin\u2019s price movements, reinforcing a bullish outlook. The analyst predicts a significant rise in Bitcoin\u2019s price, estimating the next top at the end of 2025 to reach between $210,000 and $250,000.<\/p>\n<p>In a later post, Brandt emphasized that his main prediction is an ongoing <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/analysts-bullish-on-bitcoin-set-next-target-at-82000\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">bull market<\/a> into September\/October 2025. He <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/02710176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">explained<\/a>, &#8220;I give more credence to a report I issued in February. Here is a chart from that analysis &#8212; projecting a bull market until Sep\/Oct 2025,&#8221; indicating that his views are influenced by evolving market data and theoretical models.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $62,450.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_605583\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-605583\" style=\"width: 3628px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-605583 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?resize=3628%2C1673\" alt=\"Bitcoin price\" width=\"3628\" height=\"1673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=3628 3628w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=460 460w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=768 768w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=860 860w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=750 750w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=1140 1140w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BTCUSD_2024-04-29_13-11-47.png?w=3000 3000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-605583\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ui2NIskB\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a recent analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt delved into the price behavior of Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might have reached its peak for the current cycle. According to Brandt, Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of &#8220;Exponential Decay,&#8221; indicating a weakening in the momentum of its bull market cycles over the years. &#8220;Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? It\u2019s called Exponential Decay \u2014 and it describes Bitcoin,&#8221; Brandt wrote. He further explained, &#8220;The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years&#8230; I don\u2019t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin \u2014 Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.&#8221; Brandt provided a historical breakdown of Bitcoin&#8217;s bull cycles, noting a consistent decrease in the magnitude of gains: The bull cycle from December 21, 2009, to June 6, 2011, demonstrated a staggering 3,191X advance. The subsequent cycle from November 14, 2011, to November 25, 2013, showed a reduced yet impressive 572X advance. The period from August 17, 2015, to December 18, 2017, recorded a further diminished 122X advance. More recently, the cycle from December 10, 2018, to November 8, 2021, saw just a 22X advance. Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Peak With A Probability Of 25% Drawing on these historical patterns, Brandt extrapolated that the current cycle, which began on November 21, 2022, would likely see an approximate 4.5X gain from its low of $15,473, predicting a potential high near $72,723. Notably, this peak has already been nearly met with a price of $73,835 recorded on March 14, 2024. Brandt underscores this observation with a caution, &#8220;The magnitude of each bull cycle has been roughly 20% of its predecessor, indicating significant energy loss.&#8221; Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Activity Declining \u2013 Why A Turnaround Is Important In his analysis, Brandt does not shy away from addressing the implications of Bitcoin\u2019s halving events, which have historically been catalysts for substantial price increases. Despite this, he emphasizes the undeniable presence of the decay pattern: &#8220;But for now, we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.&#8221; In a communication on X, Brandt responded to a counter analysis by fellow analyst @Giovann35084111, who argued that Bitcoin follows a power law over time, suggesting the potential for ongoing growth despite the observed decay. Brandt acknowledged the validity. \u201cQuite a thorough analysis,\u201d Brand commented. Quite a thorough analysis https:\/\/t.co\/hiSogUtEkt &mdash; Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 29, 2024 Related Reading: Timing The Breakout: When Will Bitcoin Escape The Post-Halving Consolidation? @Giovann35084111&#8217;s analysis extends beyond cyclical trends by illustrating how deviations from the power law at specific intervals, particularly around halving events, provide a structured prediction model. This approach projects systematic patterns in Bitcoin\u2019s price movements, reinforcing a bullish outlook. The analyst predicts a significant rise in Bitcoin\u2019s price, estimating the next top at the end of 2025 to reach between $210,000 and $250,000. In a later post, Brandt emphasized that his main prediction is an ongoing bull market into September\/October 2025. He explained, &#8220;I give more credence to a report I issued in February. Here is a chart from that analysis &#8212; projecting a bull market until Sep\/Oct 2025,&#8221; indicating that his views are influenced by evolving market data and theoretical models. At press time, BTC traded at $62,450. Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":605558,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,656,679,6848,1122,1144],"class_list":["post-605556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Legendary Trader Predicts When Bitcoin&#039;s Bull Run Will End<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In a recent analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that Bitcoin may have reached its cycle peak, but with a probability of only 25%.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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Through his extensive work with uniquehot.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. 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You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/\"}]}<\/script>\n","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Legendary Trader Predicts When Bitcoin's Bull Run Will End","description":"In a recent analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that Bitcoin may have reached its cycle peak, but with a probability of only 25%.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/legendary-trader-predicts-bitcoin-bull-run-end\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Legendary Trader Predicts When Bitcoin's Bull Run Will End","og_description":"In a recent analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that Bitcoin may have reached its cycle peak, but with a probability of only 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