{"id":608523,"date":"2024-05-17T07:30:23","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T07:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=608523"},"modified":"2024-06-11T06:59:44","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T06:59:44","slug":"hidden-forces-behind-bitcoin-price-on-chain-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/hidden-forces-behind-bitcoin-price-on-chain-data\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Leading on-chain analyst James Check, popularly known as Checkmatey, has recently delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin&#8217;s market dynamics, offering a detailed on-chain data <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/_Checkmatey_\/status\/74370193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">analysis<\/a> that sheds light on the forces driving Bitcoin prices. His latest insights highlight a period he describes as &#8220;Quiet and Trending,&#8221; suggesting a robust underpinning despite significant sell-side pressures and shifts in volatility.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Follows The Stair-Stepping Rally-Consolidation-Rally Pattern<\/h2>\n<p>Since December, Bitcoin has experienced substantial sell-side pressure, with over 1.5 million BTC being sold. &#8220;Around 30% of this came out of GBTC, but the rest of it was good old fashioned profit taking,&#8221; Check explains.<br \/>\nDespite such substantial market sales, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience with a relatively modest price correction of just -20%. This suggests that the foundational support levels for Bitcoin are stronger than what surface-level market movements might imply.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_608532\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-608532\" style=\"width: 1456px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-608532 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuwkw4WcAATuxf.jpg?resize=1456%2C671\" alt=\"Bitcoin bull market drawdowns\" width=\"1456\" height=\"671\" srcset=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuwkw4WcAATuxf.jpg?w=1456 1456w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuwkw4WcAATuxf.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuwkw4WcAATuxf.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuwkw4WcAATuxf.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuwkw4WcAATuxf.jpg?w=750 750w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuwkw4WcAATuxf.jpg?w=1140 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-608532\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin bull market drawdowns | Source: X @_Checkmatey_<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A striking aspect of Check&#8217;s analysis is the transformation in Bitcoin\u2019s volatility profile. &#8220;The overall realized volatility profile for Bitcoin is half what it was in 2021, and 3x smaller than 2017,&#8221; states Check. This trend indicates a growing maturity within the Bitcoin market, reflecting its evolution into a more stable asset over time compared to its early years.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_608531\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-608531\" style=\"width: 1456px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-608531 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuw8eyWEAEDQ2Z.jpg?resize=1456%2C673\" alt=\"Bitcoin Realized Volatility\" width=\"1456\" height=\"673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuw8eyWEAEDQ2Z.jpg?w=1456 1456w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuw8eyWEAEDQ2Z.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuw8eyWEAEDQ2Z.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuw8eyWEAEDQ2Z.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuw8eyWEAEDQ2Z.jpg?w=750 750w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuw8eyWEAEDQ2Z.jpg?w=1140 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-608531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin Realized Volatility | Source: X @_Checkmatey_<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Check counters the typical narrative surrounding Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility: &#8220;What a lot of people forget however is that Bitcoin is volatile to the upside. Volatility to the upside is good!&#8221; He posits that the current increment in volatility is moderate and suggests that the market is still in the early phases of a bull run, rather than nearing its end.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/most-important-bitcoin-indicator-nears-bullish-flip\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Most Important Bitcoin Indicator Nears Bullish Flip: $150,000 Soon?<\/a><\/div>\n<p>A critical tool in Check\u2019s analysis is the <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-mvrv-levels-parabolic-bull-run-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Short-Term Holder MVRV<\/a> (STH-MVRV) Ratio, which he uses to gauge market sentiment and phases. According to Check, this ratio consistently finds support at 1.0 and resistance at 1.4 during stable uptrends. Stability is maintained as long as the ratio remains within these bounds. &#8220;Only when it breaks above this ceiling do things become unstable,&#8221; Check notes, which could signal a transition to bearish conditions.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_608530\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-608530\" style=\"width: 1456px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-608530 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuxoIKWwAEgrAM.jpg?resize=1456%2C668\" alt=\"Short-Term Holder MVRV\" width=\"1456\" height=\"668\" srcset=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuxoIKWwAEgrAM.jpg?w=1456 1456w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuxoIKWwAEgrAM.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuxoIKWwAEgrAM.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuxoIKWwAEgrAM.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuxoIKWwAEgrAM.jpg?w=750 750w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GNuxoIKWwAEgrAM.jpg?w=1140 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-608530\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Short-Term Holder MVRV | Source: X @_Checkmatey_<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Despite the sell-off that brought Bitcoin down to $57k, Check observes that this has not significantly dented the profitability of short-term holders. &#8220;The magnitude of Unrealised Loss was very much in line with bull market corrections, calming fears of a <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/crypto-expert-bitcoin-bottom\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">top-heavy market<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/bitcoin-news\/is-bitcoin-rally-over-top-analysts-predict-imminent-price-corrections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Is Bitcoin\u2019s Rally Over? Top Analysts Predict Imminent Price Corrections<\/a><\/div>\n<p>He further highlights that several of the local top buyers panic sold their Bitcoin at the lows, an action he interprets as beneficial for the correction phase, serving to stabilize the market by shaking out weak hands.<\/p>\n<p>Expanding his analysis, Check refutes the criticism that Bitcoin\u2019s volatility makes it a less viable asset. He points to a chart comparison of Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day volatility against top-performing US stocks, showing that <a href=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/news\/bitcoin\/asia-bitcoin-volatility-algos-tracking-etf-flows\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility<\/a> is well within a manageable range.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, he discusses the lower realized volatility of the SPY index, attributing it to the &#8220;out sized performance of the Magnificent-7,&#8221; which is counterbalanced by the poorer performance of the other components.<\/p>\n<p>By highlighting the structural aspects of the current &#8220;Quiet and Trending&#8221; market phase, Check offers a refined perspective on how Bitcoin is navigating its maturation pathway, balancing between its speculative origins and its potential as a mainstream financial asset.<\/p>\n<p>He concludes, \u201cOverall, the Bitcoin uptrend in 2023-24 looks fairly structured, following stair-stepping rally-consolidation-rally pattern. However, as the charts above show, volatility tends to pick up during a consolidation, and that can lead to instability.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $66,288.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_608534\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-608534\" style=\"width: 3628px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-608534 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?resize=3628%2C1673\" alt=\"Bitcoin price\" width=\"3628\" height=\"1673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=3628 3628w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=460 460w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=768 768w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=860 860w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=750 750w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=1140 1140w, https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BTCUSD_2024-05-17_09-14-14.png?w=3000 3000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-608534\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BTC price reclaims $66,000, 1-day chart | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/5uzUEbE1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Leading on-chain analyst James Check, popularly known as Checkmatey, has recently delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin&#8217;s market dynamics, offering a detailed on-chain data analysis that sheds light on the forces driving Bitcoin prices. His latest insights highlight a period he describes as &#8220;Quiet and Trending,&#8221; suggesting a robust underpinning despite significant sell-side pressures and shifts in volatility. Bitcoin Follows The Stair-Stepping Rally-Consolidation-Rally Pattern Since December, Bitcoin has experienced substantial sell-side pressure, with over 1.5 million BTC being sold. &#8220;Around 30% of this came out of GBTC, but the rest of it was good old fashioned profit taking,&#8221; Check explains. Despite such substantial market sales, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience with a relatively modest price correction of just -20%. This suggests that the foundational support levels for Bitcoin are stronger than what surface-level market movements might imply. A striking aspect of Check&#8217;s analysis is the transformation in Bitcoin\u2019s volatility profile. &#8220;The overall realized volatility profile for Bitcoin is half what it was in 2021, and 3x smaller than 2017,&#8221; states Check. This trend indicates a growing maturity within the Bitcoin market, reflecting its evolution into a more stable asset over time compared to its early years. Check counters the typical narrative surrounding Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility: &#8220;What a lot of people forget however is that Bitcoin is volatile to the upside. Volatility to the upside is good!&#8221; He posits that the current increment in volatility is moderate and suggests that the market is still in the early phases of a bull run, rather than nearing its end. Related Reading: Most Important Bitcoin Indicator Nears Bullish Flip: $150,000 Soon? A critical tool in Check\u2019s analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) Ratio, which he uses to gauge market sentiment and phases. According to Check, this ratio consistently finds support at 1.0 and resistance at 1.4 during stable uptrends. Stability is maintained as long as the ratio remains within these bounds. &#8220;Only when it breaks above this ceiling do things become unstable,&#8221; Check notes, which could signal a transition to bearish conditions. Despite the sell-off that brought Bitcoin down to $57k, Check observes that this has not significantly dented the profitability of short-term holders. &#8220;The magnitude of Unrealised Loss was very much in line with bull market corrections, calming fears of a top-heavy market.&#8221; Related Reading: Is Bitcoin\u2019s Rally Over? Top Analysts Predict Imminent Price Corrections He further highlights that several of the local top buyers panic sold their Bitcoin at the lows, an action he interprets as beneficial for the correction phase, serving to stabilize the market by shaking out weak hands. Expanding his analysis, Check refutes the criticism that Bitcoin\u2019s volatility makes it a less viable asset. He points to a chart comparison of Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day volatility against top-performing US stocks, showing that Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility is well within a manageable range. Furthermore, he discusses the lower realized volatility of the SPY index, attributing it to the &#8220;out sized performance of the Magnificent-7,&#8221; which is counterbalanced by the poorer performance of the other components. By highlighting the structural aspects of the current &#8220;Quiet and Trending&#8221; market phase, Check offers a refined perspective on how Bitcoin is navigating its maturation pathway, balancing between its speculative origins and its potential as a mainstream financial asset. He concludes, \u201cOverall, the Bitcoin uptrend in 2023-24 looks fairly structured, following stair-stepping rally-consolidation-rally pattern. However, as the charts above show, volatility tends to pick up during a consolidation, and that can lead to instability.\u201d At press time, BTC traded at $66,288. Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":608524,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,656,83956,679,680,1119,1122],"class_list":["post-608523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-on-chain-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-analysis","tag-btc","tag-btc-price"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Insights From On-Chain Data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Leading on-chain analyst James Check delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin&#039;s market dynamics, offering a detailed analysis.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Simmons\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b1c6e6bccf4fbe757cbc0396eeac0abf?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b1c6e6bccf4fbe757cbc0396eeac0abf?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jake Simmons\"},\"description\":\"Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with uniquehot.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. 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