{"id":635465,"date":"2024-08-15T09:00:51","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T09:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/?p=635465"},"modified":"2024-08-14T18:37:21","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T18:37:21","slug":"historical-study-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-164000-heres-when","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/bitcoin-news\/historical-study-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-164000-heres-when\/","title":{"rendered":"Historical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000\u2014Here\u2019s When"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has continued to see a blend of bulls and bears without any major high achieved since its renewed peak above $73,000 in March. So far, the asset has ranged below $60,000<\/a> in the past week, as it appears to face resistance whenever it reaches that price mark.<\/p>\n

However, several analysts and experts share their optimistic outlook on top crypto despite this. Sminston With, a prominent Bitcoin researcher, recently offered<\/a> an interesting forecast on BTC based on a detailed examination of the asset’s price trajectory over past bull cycles.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Set To Surge With $2.5 Billion Stablecoin Inflows: Research Firm<\/a><\/div>\n

Decoding Bitcoin’s ‘Decaying Peaks’<\/h2>\n

Shared in a post on Elon Musk’s social media platform, X, With’s analysis draws from the peak periods of Bitcoin in 2011, 2013, and 2017 to project future possibilities for this leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n

The concept used in the analysis, “decaying peaks,” refers to the progressively lower returns seen in successive Bitcoin bull runs as the market matures and gains wider acceptance<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This phenomenon is captured through an analysis known as the “exponential decay fit,” which Is employed to evaluate the peaks of Bitcoin’s past bull cycles by aligning the historical data points of 2011, 2013, and 2017, With aimed to delineate a pattern that could suggest future price movements<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

I wanted to highlight a study looking at the decaying peaks of the #BTC<\/a> price residuals from each cycle (this is what is used to build the Decay Channel and also the Oscillator).<\/p>\n

Here I simply did an exponential decay fit of the max residuals (price \/ .05 quantile power law\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/dKv60ajL1j<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Sminston With (@sminston_with) August 12, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In his study, the analyst applied this model to the 2021 cycle peak, yielding a forecast close to market behavior. The model predicted a peak of $65,732.72, closely shadowing the actual peak of $64,682.47, highlighting the potential reliability of this analytical approach.<\/p>\n

\"Decay
Decay peak prediction. | Source: Sminston With on X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Towards A $164,000 Bitcoin By 2025?<\/h2>\n

Now extending his analytical framework to the upcoming cycles<\/a>, he ventured a bold prediction for the 2024-2025 period.<\/p>\n

The estimation of the decaying peaks model sketches an ambitious trajectory<\/a> that could see Bitcoin reaching as high as $164,000. This projection is based on continuing patterns observed in BTC’s past market behaviors.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised To Reach New All-Time Highs: Expert Dives Into Tether\u2019s Role As The Key<\/a><\/div>\n

However, caution is required to consider these predictions with skepticism due to the limited data set\u2014only four market cycles have been analyzed to date. The analyst noted:<\/p>\n

The precise exponential decay of the tops (against the power law support) is worth taking with a big grain of salt (we only have 4 data points now), but this is definitely worth paying attention to as we move through the current cycle.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price is moving sideways on the 1-hour chart. Source: BTC\/USDT on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has continued to see a blend of bulls and bears without any major high achieved since its renewed peak above $73,000 in March. So far, the asset has ranged below $60,000 in the past week, as it appears to face resistance whenever it reaches that price mark. However, several analysts and experts share their optimistic outlook on top crypto despite this. Sminston With, a prominent Bitcoin researcher, recently offered an interesting forecast on BTC based on a detailed examination of the asset’s price trajectory over past bull cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Set To Surge With $2.5 Billion Stablecoin Inflows: Research Firm Decoding Bitcoin’s ‘Decaying Peaks’ Shared in a post on Elon Musk’s social media platform, X, With’s analysis draws from the peak periods of Bitcoin in 2011, 2013, and 2017 to project future possibilities for this leading cryptocurrency. The concept used in the analysis, “decaying peaks,” refers to the progressively lower returns seen in successive Bitcoin bull runs as the market matures and gains wider acceptance. This phenomenon is captured through an analysis known as the “exponential decay fit,” which Is employed to evaluate the peaks of Bitcoin’s past bull cycles by aligning the historical data points of 2011, 2013, and 2017, With aimed to delineate a pattern that could suggest future price movements. I wanted to highlight a study looking at the decaying peaks of the #BTC price residuals from each cycle (this is what is used to build the Decay Channel and also the Oscillator). Here I simply did an exponential decay fit of the max residuals (price \/ .05 quantile power law\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/dKv60ajL1j \u2014 Sminston With (@sminston_with) August 12, 2024 In his study, the analyst applied this model to the 2021 cycle peak, yielding a forecast close to market behavior. The model predicted a peak of $65,732.72, closely shadowing the actual peak of $64,682.47, highlighting the potential reliability of this analytical approach. Towards A $164,000 Bitcoin By 2025? Now extending his analytical framework to the upcoming cycles, he ventured a bold prediction for the 2024-2025 period. The estimation of the decaying peaks model sketches an ambitious trajectory that could see Bitcoin reaching as high as $164,000. This projection is based on continuing patterns observed in BTC’s past market behaviors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised To Reach New All-Time Highs: Expert Dives Into Tether\u2019s Role As The Key However, caution is required to consider these predictions with skepticism due to the limited data set\u2014only four market cycles have been analyzed to date. The analyst noted: The precise exponential decay of the tops (against the power law support) is worth taking with a big grain of salt (we only have 4 data points now), but this is definitely worth paying attention to as we move through the current cycle. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":580,"featured_media":635487,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88240],"tags":[428,441,6848,1119,92889,78790,6664,10923],"class_list":["post-635465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-btc","tag-btc-forecast","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHistorical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000\u2014Here\u2019s When<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin has continued to see a mixed of bulls and bears without any major high achieved ever since its peak above $73,000 in March...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others. Edyme\u2019s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis. Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events\u2014like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ\u2019s arrest\u2014has honed his keen sense of market dynamics. When he isn\u2019t crafting engaging crypto content, you\u2019ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he\u2019s catching some Z\u2019s or scrolling through Elon Musk\u2019s very own X platform\u2014(oops, another screen activity, my bad\u2026) Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters\u2014(don\u2019t judge, that\u2019s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or \u201ckaizen,\u201d striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, \u201cGod knows best\u201d and \u201cEverything is still on track,\u201d reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life. In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He\u2019s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck\u2014unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet\u2014bold. He\u2019s the guy who\u2019d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point\u2014(uhhh\u2026). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent\u2014okay, maybe that\u2019s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps. Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That\u2019s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF\u2019s \u201cClouds\u201d that resonate deeply with him: \u201cWhat you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.\u201d PS\u2014Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He\u2019s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/0xEdyme"],"url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/author\/samueledymeabayomi\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Historical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000\u2014Here\u2019s When","url":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/bitcoin-news\/historical-study-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-164000-heres-when\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/uniquehot.com\/bitcoin-news\/historical-study-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-164000-heres-when\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-08-14-16.28.08-A-digital-illustration-predicting-Bitcoins-rise-to-164000-based-on-a-historical-study.-The-image-features-a-Bitcoin-symbol-with-an-upward-trending-.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-08-14-16.28.08-A-digital-illustration-predicting-Bitcoins-rise-to-164000-based-on-a-historical-study.-The-image-features-a-Bitcoin-symbol-with-an-upward-trending-.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024"},"articleSection":"Bitcoin News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Samuel Edyme"}],"creator":["Samuel Edyme"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin analysis","bitcoin price prediction","btc","btc forecast","btcusdt","crypto","crypto market"],"dateCreated":"2024-08-15T09:00:51Z","datePublished":"2024-08-15T09:00:51Z","dateModified":"2024-08-15T09:00:51Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Historical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000\\u2014Here\\u2019s When\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/bitcoin-news\\\/historical-study-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-164000-heres-when\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/bitcoin-news\\\/historical-study-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-164000-heres-when\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/08\\\/DALL\\u00b7E-2024-08-14-16.28.08-A-digital-illustration-predicting-Bitcoins-rise-to-164000-based-on-a-historical-study.-The-image-features-a-Bitcoin-symbol-with-an-upward-trending-.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/08\\\/DALL\\u00b7E-2024-08-14-16.28.08-A-digital-illustration-predicting-Bitcoins-rise-to-164000-based-on-a-historical-study.-The-image-features-a-Bitcoin-symbol-with-an-upward-trending-.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024\"},\"articleSection\":\"Bitcoin News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Samuel Edyme\"}],\"creator\":[\"Samuel Edyme\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uniquehot.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin analysis\",\"bitcoin price prediction\",\"btc\",\"btc forecast\",\"btcusdt\",\"crypto\",\"crypto market\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2024-08-15T09:00:51Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-08-15T09:00:51Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-15T09:00:51Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/uniquehot.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-08-14-16.28.08-A-digital-illustration-predicting-Bitcoins-rise-to-164000-based-on-a-historical-study.-The-image-features-a-Bitcoin-symbol-with-an-upward-trending-.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/635465"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/580"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=635465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/635465\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/635487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=635465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=635465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uniquehot.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=635465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}